HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 3-4; Soybeans, Up 11-12+ ; Wheat, Down 3-4
· China’s real estate prices fall in .7% in January; resale home values ease .4% but despite an 8-city, 20% year on year gain the Shanghai Composite closed down 1.7%. Nervousness filtered over to other markets with the Hang Seng .8% lower and the Nikkei off .2%. Early trade in Europe finds mixed results: The FTSE and DAX are down .3% and .13%, respectively while the CAC-40 is up .19%. Futures for U.S. indices are slightly positive: S&P, +.75; Dow, +3 and the Nasdaq, +3.25. Outside markets have gold up $11.25 per oz; the energies are lower except for natural gas and the $ Index is .030 weaker at 80.240
· T-storm Weather: Areas of upper- and surface-level high pressure keep Southeast Brazil drier than average through 7-10 days, while near-and above-average rainfall affects all other areas of Brazil, as well as Argentina and Paraguay. Record-setting coldness dominates the northern one-third to one-half of the central U.S. through early March. Although the intensity of coldness diminishes from March 2 forward, temps remain colder than average as a pattern similar to that of the last 3-4 months continues. A strong system is probable to sweep through the central U.S. within March 2-4; best rain chances east of Plains HRW wheat
· Mar Corn Down $.0375 at $4.4925; May Down $.0375 at $4.5525. The funds sell 3 K on Friday
· Mar SB Up $.1125 at $13.82; May SB Up $.1050 at $13.7075. Funds bought 8 K SB, 6 K SMB and 3 K SBO on Friday
· Mar Wheat Down $.0350 at $6.0625; May Wheat Down $.0175 at $6.0375. The funds sold 32 K to close out the week
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Crop insurance base pricing update—Avg. of December 2014 corn futures for Feb. 3-21 was $4.6002
· T-storm Weather: Excess rain across Argentina since mid-January may limit full potential of some late-planted corn
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 34.5 needed; 32.6 last week. Milo—3.5 needed; 4.5 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 4,974 contracts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Crop insurance base pricing update—Avg. of November 2014 soybean futures, Feb. 3-21 was $11.2632
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 8.6 needed; 54.0 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 14,487 contracts
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 22.5 needed; 9.8 last week
· Commitment of Traders: CBT Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 2,736 contracts
· T-storm Weather: Winterkill is a potential problem for HRW wheat in/near South Dakota this week
ENERGY
· Energies are mostly lower: QCLJ14, -$0.13 at $102.07; QRBJ, -$0.0146; QNGH, +$.175 andQHOJ, -$.0024
· Mixed trend remains intact for cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago and Gulf were steady; NY gained 12; Tampa and Dallas lost a penny; and LA prices were 1 ½ weaker at $2.61 ½ per gallon
· RINs were ½ higher across the board: 2012’s at 55-58; 2013’s at 57-58; and 2014’s 54 ½-55 ½
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread firmed up $.0133 per gallon to $.7633 on Friday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· January placements in Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed were up a larger than expected 9% from last year on lower feed costs and record high cash cattle. Feb 1 on feed still dn 3% from last year and smallest for month since 2003
· Cash cattle traded Friday at mostly $145, up $3 from the week before
· After increasing $6.64 over the previous four days, Choice boxed beef values eased 57-cents Friday
· Friday’s USDA Cold Storage report showed Jan. total pork stocks up 3% from last year and record large for the month
· The USDA pork carcass cutout firmed 17-cents Friday and has increased $3.05 over the last two trading day
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather