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Market Trend Corn, Down 3 to 4, Soybeans, Down 7 to 8, Wheat, Down 2 to 3

January 20, 2015 07:17 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn,  Down 3-4; Soybeans, Down 7-8; Wheat, Down 2-3

·         China’s QIV GDP came it at 7.3%, a tenth of a point above expectations which helped lift most of Asia into positive territory.  The Nikkei was up 2%; Shanghai gained 1.8% and the Hang Seng edged .9% higher.  European markets are also firmer at mid-day on hopes of an ECB stimulus package:  DAX, +.13%; FTSE, +.71% and CAC 40, +1.0%.  Pre-market indicators suggest a positive start in the U.S.:  DOW futures, +47; S&P500, +7 ¼ and the NAS, up nearly 20, awaiting 4th quarter earnings results.   Outside markets find the $ Index up .18 at 93.07; energy futures are again lower and gold is $12.90 higher at $1,289.80

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall and induces heat across and adjacent Center-West and Southeast / Northeast Brazil into midweek.  Changes beginThursday-Friday and continue into next week as a cool front sweeps northward and dissipates, allowing thunderstorms to return and breaking the period of dryness that begin in mid-December.  2.00" - 4.00" of rain is probable across much of the region over the next 10 days, which is near the average of around 3.00" for the period.  To the south, cool fronts trigger thunderstorms in parts of Argentina, Paraguay, and South Brazil through 10 days

·         Mar Corn Down $.0375 at $3.8325; May Down $.0350 at $3.9075.  The funds bought 5 Kon Friday

·         Mar SB Down $.0750 at $9.8425; May Down $.0750 at $9.90.  Funds sold 2 K SB; 1 SBM; again bot 4 SBO

·         Mar Wheat Down $.0275 at $5.30; May Down $.0275 at $5.32.  The funds bought 1 K to close out the week

CORN/SORGHUM                                          ​                        &​nbsp;                    

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $3.87 on Friday.  One year ago, the March 2014 corn contract closed at $4.28

·         Private crop consultant: Corn planting in Argentina is approximately 89% complete.  The earlier planted corn is now in the grain filling process and much of it is rated good or excellent

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 37.9 needed; 19.7 last week.  Milo—4.4 needed; 4.0 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 7,890 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 17.3 needed; 67.6 last week

·         Private crop consultant: Condition of most of the soybeans in Brazil is good to very good, but some crops in the drier central and eastern areas of the country are not rated as high

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions decrease 4,788 contracts

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 20.3 needed; 8.8 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 7,090 contracts

ENERGY

·         Futures are lower with  QCLG15, -$0.94 at $47.75; QRBG, -$0.0145; QNGG, -$.148; and QHOG, -$.0160

·         Cash ethanol markets were firmer last Friday (no report on Monday): Chicago gained 3; New York added 4; Gulf up 1 ½; Dallas climbed 2 ½; Tampa tacked on 1; and LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.51 per gallon

·         RINs were weaker on Friday : 2013’s off 2 ¾ at 62-63 ½; 2014’s down 2 ¾ at 63-64; and 2015’s eased 3 ¾ to 62-63

·         The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol spread settled at a carry on Friday:  +.0058

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          &nbs​p;                        ​;        

·&nbs​p;        Choice boxed beef values decreased $1.03 on Monday but are still up 64-cents vs. last week

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price decreased $6.50 last week to $163.17/cwt but is up $20.67 v. last year

·         On Monday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value was unchanged at $84.10 although that’s up $1.74 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index 40-cents lower at $75.58.  February futures down $1.125 to $74.50 and $1.08 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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