HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 3-4; Soybeans, 9-12 Lower; Wheat, 3-4 Lower
· Listless appears to be the operative word for global equities as they seek direction this morning. A massive airbag recall by Japanese automakers Honda and Nissan contributed to early weakness in the Nikkei but it managed to close .05% higher while positive Chinese manufacturing data lifted the Hang Seng .33% and Shanghai, +.47%. Europe is mostly lower—FTSE, off .25%; the DAX, -.02% and the CAC-40, +.14%. U.S. futures are a little weaker: Dow, off 24; S&P, down 3.5 and the NAS, off 6.75. Energy futures are higher; the $ Index is .043 lower at 80.295 and gold is $6 to the plus side at $1,324/oz
· T-Storm Weather: Hot upper-level high pressure focuses to the west of key agricultural areas through at least 10-14 days. Its eastern flank occasionally bubbles into the central U.S., keeping temperatures near to warmer than usual. The end result is that widespread coverage of near-and above-average rainfall (1.00" - 3.00" amounts) occurs in most areas through the first week of July. Rains initially focus on the southern halves of the Corn Belt and Plains (and Delta) through Friday-Saturday; generally south of wettest areas. Thunderstorms return to central and northern areas within Saturday-Monday as warmth expands
· July Corn Down $.0325 at $4.4125; September Down $.04 at $4.35. The funds started off the week selling 10 K
· July Soybeans Down $.11 at $14.1375; August Down $.0925 at $13.5625. Funds: bought 2 K SB; sold 4 K SBM; bought 5 K SBO
· July Wheat Down $.0375 at $5.76; September Down $.04 at $5.85. The funds sold another 4 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: USDA pegs U.S. Good/Excellent corn condition ratings at 74% vs. 76% last week. Updated ATI crop size edged up 49mbu from a week ago to 14.084Bbu with the national average yield now forecast at 168.5bpa
· T-storm Weather: 21% of U.S. corn is unusually wet because it received twice the average rain over the last 30 days
· Export Inspections; Corn, 38.9mbu (44.5 needed) Milo, 2.4mbu (4.0) with China taking 2.3 million bushels
· ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet--13/14 carryout dn 32mbu to 1.127Bbu; 14/15 up 18 million to 1.661Bbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. soybean ratings down a point to 72%; crop size up 9 million to 3.670Bbu
· T-storm Weather: 16% of U.S. soybeans unusually wet because received twice the average rain over the last 30 days
· ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet--13/14 carryout down 10 mil to 96mbu; 14/15 dn 1 million to 351mbu
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 2.3mbu (3.7 needed)
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. spring wheat ratings dn a point to 71% with HRS crop size unch at 490mbu
· ATI Research: Updated SRW wheat balance sheet--13/14 carryout at 137mbu; 14/15 at 169mbu
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLQ14, +$.06 at $106.23; QRBQ, +$0.0031; QNGQ, +$.037; and QHOQ, +$.0030
· Cash ethanol markets were slightly weaker on Monday: Chicago down 1 ¾; Gulf off 3 ½; Dallas slipped a penny; New York eased ½; Tampa declined 5; and LA was 3 lower at $2.36 per gallon
· RINs lost ground: 2012’s down 2 ¾ to 54-60; 2013’s off 3 ¾ at 54-60; and 2014’s was 3 ½ lower at 54 ½-60
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread slips $.0081/gallon to $1.0376 on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $1.88 yesterday and have gained $11.88 over the last seven trading days
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $149.10, down 38-cents from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.40 yesterday and has increased $7.60 over the last six days
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.95 to $120.39. July future up $0.475 to $128.30 and are $7.91 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather