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Market Trend Corn, Down 2 to 3, Soybeans, Up 2, Wheat, 5 to 6 Lower.

November 7, 2014 07:24 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans, Up 2; Wheat, 5-6 Lower.   Europe:  Wheat, -1 ½; Corn, + ¾                     

·   ​;      Overseas markets had a mostly higher bias early-on but have lost some of their momentum as dawn approaches.  Shangha and the Hang Seng lost .28% and .42%, respectively; the Nikkei remained firmer, up .52%.  Early trade in Europe finds the DAX off .27% and the CAC-40, down .53%; the FTSE is .58% higher. Pre-market indications  have the DOW, -1; S&P, -1.25; NAS, +3.70. The big data release today is the monthly employment report; consensus is 235 K with a rather wide range, 140 to 314 K. Externals:  energy futures are higher; gold is up $1 @ $1,143.30; the $ Index is slightly weaker, off .027 at 88.305

·         South America Weather: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for Center-West Brazil today, near to above normal temps.  Scattered light to moderate rain forecast for Saturday, variable temps.  In South Brazil, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today with moderate to heavy amounts; temps variable.  Mostly dry conditions forecast Saturday, near to below normal temps.  Dry conditions forecast through Saturday in northern Argentina, near to below normal temps today and near to above normal Saturday.  Dry conditions forecast for southern Argentina through Saturday; temps near to below normal today, variable Saturday   

·         Dec Corn Down $.0275 at $3.6850; March Down $.03 at $3.81.  The funds again bought 4 K Thur.    0K etoh deliveries

·         Nov SB Up $.02 at $10.33; Jan Up $.0250 at $10.3050.    Funds: bought 4 K SB, 5 K SBM, sold 1 K SBO.  0 SB deliveries

·         Dec Wheat Down $.0525 at $5.15; March Down $.0525 at $5.2675.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;             

·  &n​bsp;      ATI Research: Since 1984, there have been 8 years when the national average corn yield increased in September and again in October.  In 7 of those years, the yield increased again in November by an average of 2.8 bpa

·         Outstanding U.S. corn export sales as of Oct. 30: 485 mbu vs. 674 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 491 mil

·         Outstanding U.S. sorghum export sales as of Oct. 30: 76 mbu vs. 39 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 23 mil

·         December 2014 corn futures closed at $3.71 ¼ Thurs.; one year ago, the December 2013 corn contract was $4.21 ¼

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Since 1984, there have been 7 years when the national average soybean yield increased in September and again in October.  In each of those years, the yield increased again in November by an average of 0.7 bpa

·         Outstanding U.S. soybean export sales as of Oct. 30: 929 mbu vs. 887 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 674 mil

·         November 2014 soybean futures closed at $10.31 Thurs.; one year ago, the Nov. 2013 soybean contract was $12.63

·         Outstanding U.S. wheat export sales as of Oct. 30: 177 mbu vs. 192 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 186 mil

·         CBT Dec 2014 wheat futures closed at $5.20 ¼ Thurs.; one year ago, the CBT Dec. 2013 wheat contract was $6.53 ¼

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher:   QCLZ14, +$0.22 at $78.13; QRBZ, +$0.0003; QNGZ, +$.004; and QHOZ, +$.0130

·         Cash ethanol markets were exceptionally stronger on Thursday: Chicago soared 17 ½; Gulf jumped 17; New York gained 16 ½; Tampa and Dallas up 10 ½; and LA was 14 ½ higher at $2.24 per gallon

·         Higher trend in RINs: 2013’s added ¾ to 45 ¼-45 ¾; 2014’s up ¾ to 45 ¼-45 ¾; and 2015’s gained 5/8 to 44 ¾-45 ½

·         The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol spread reversed direction, easing $.0634 to $.2351 Thursday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nbs​p;                        ​;              

·         Choice boxed beef values were 72-cents lower on Thursday and are down $2.83 vs. last week

·         Cash cattle sold steady Thursday in the Northern Plains with last week’s lightly tested market at $168

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased 92-cents on Thursday, is down $3.01 vs. last week & lowest since Feb. 19

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.47 to $88.25.  December futures up $0.525 to $87.65 and are $0.60 below the index

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 1.9% from last year and average set over the last four weeks is 2.8% above last year

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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