HIGHLIGHTS

·        Market Trend:  Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans,  Up ½ to 1;  Wheat, Down 1-2  

·        Better than expected U.S. December retail sales lift EU markets in early trading this morning—the DAX is up .9%; the FTSE is showing a .3% gain and France’s CAC-40 is .4% higher. These numbers follow Asia which had the Nikkei up nearly 400 points (2.5%); the Hang Seng a ½ percent higher while Shanghai edged .17% lower.  U.S. futures point to a slightly firmer start: Dow, up 38; S&P, up 3 ¾ and the Nasdaq, 13 higher.  Gold is off $9.80 at $1,238.50/oz; the energy complex is mixed and the $ Index is a ¼ point higher at 81.00

·        Argentina was mostly dry to start the week; southern Brazil was dry as well; showers did occur north of Parana.  S AM forecasts are little changed--net drying occurs through Thurs for Argentina.   Next chance for rain will be the 20-21^st with up to ¾”, mostly S/SW but the forecast is uncertain. In Brazil,  Mato Grosso do Sul, W Parana and Santa Catarina may get a little too much rain this week, with heavier amounts  targeted for next week. International 6-10 day forecasts are drier than normal for Argentina and Brazil. In the U.S., the NWS 6-10 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures west of the Mississippi River with below normal precip for most areas; the 8-14 day forecast is warm west of the Mississippi and cooler than normal east; the southern 2/3’s of the U.S. is expected to be drier than normal

·        Mar Corn Down $.0275 at $4.2875; May Down $.0275 at $4.3675.  Funds sell 5 K yesterday

·        Mar SB Up $.0050 at $13.0750; May SB Up $.0025 at $12.8850.  Funds bought 7 K SB, 5 SBM and sold 2 K SBO

·        Mar Wheat Down $.0125 at $5.78; May Wheat Down $.0075 at $5.8550.  The funds were buyers of 3 K on Tuesday  

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Weekly ethanol grind expected in the 99-100 mbu range this morning

·         Hot/dry weather in Argentina finds some trade estimates as low as 18, 7 below the USDA’s latest figure; Rosario Exchange is at 22

·         U.S. corn export sales reach 1,128 bbu, 78% sold is an all-time high for early January. Still, USDA has had a tendency to by 80 mbu TOO HIGH on its January forecast—5 year average

·         1^st quarter feed/residual use—extrapolating out gives a wide annual potential of 5.0 to 6.3 bbu using past 5 years

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         NOPA December crush out at 11:00 AM CST—trade expects a 3.8 mbu increase from November to 163.9; end of month oil stocks expected to rise by about 70 million pounds to 1.555 billion

·         Brisk export meal demand noted the past month—weekly shipments at 283 K MT/week a new seasonal high

·         U.S. Soybean exports-100% sold versus USDA forecast—3 of the past 4 years in which markets is 80% or sold at this point have seen final export total come in about 40 million lower

·         EU study sees internal wheat prices averaging $7 per MT above corn in the up-coming decade, a complete reversal from the early 2000’s—wheat feeding implications, and corn?

ENERGY

·         Energy market are mixed with QCLG14,+$0.51 at $93.10; QRBG, -$0.0169; QNGG,+$.043 and QHOG, -$.0009

·         Cash ethanol markets ease on ample corn supplies:  Dallas and Tampa were both off 5 to 5 ½ cents; LA lost 4; Chicago was 3 ¾ lower; the Gulf was 2 lower and NY eased a ½ cent

·         EIA estimates (API):   crude, -.8 mbu (-4.1); gasoline, +2.3 (+5.4); distillates, +1.1 (-1.7)

·         RINs were mixed: 2012’s, up ½ to 30-31; 2013’s backed off ½, also at 30-31 and 2014’s edged a ¼ higher, 30 ½-31

·         The February RBOB/February ethanol was back out 2 cents on Tuesday, to $.7044 per gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                              &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;    

• Choice boxed beef values gained $4.10 yesterday to set a new record high of $221.04/cwt
• February cattle futures gained $1.05 yesterday to $137.65, a new record high for the nearby contract
• After easing 23-cents over the previous two trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.65 yesterday
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.04 yesterday to $78.71

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather