Market Trend Corn, Down 2 to 3, Soybeans, Steady to Down 1, Wheat, Steady
February 20, 2015 07:25 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans, Steady to Down 1; Wheat, Steady to Up 1
· A mostly firmer trend is being seen in stocks around the world. Several markets in the Asian region are closed today in observance of the Lunar New Year. Worth noting that Japan’s Nikkei hit a 15-year high yesterday. At midday, European stocks are higher with the FTSE up 0.33% and the DAX posting a gain of 0.67%. U.S. stocks are mixed ahead of the open: DOW, up 5; NAS, +4 and the S&P, off 1. Outside markets have crude oil nearly steady after testing $50 on Thursday; the $ Index is up .178 at 94.67 and gold is higher at $1,211.20.
· T-storm Weather: A cool front triggers thunderstorms across Center-West and South Brazil over the next few days, likely slowing harvesting and planting. Drying that is already underway across Northeast and Southeast Brazil expands into all areas as a puff of dry air blasts westward, suppressing thunderstorms and aiding planting and harvesting in most areas into the middle of next week. Thereafter, it remains most probable for a new cool front (or series of cool fronts) to trigger new thunderstorms with near-average rainfall most probable for one week beginning Wednesday-Thursday (over Feb. 25 – Mar. 3)
· Mar Corn Down $0.0225 at $3.875; May Down $0.0225 at $3.955. The funds bought 8 Kon Thursday
· Mar SB Down $.0025 at $10.07; May Down $.005 at $10.1075. Funds bought 7 K SB; 8 K SBM and sold 4 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0025 at $5.28; May Up $0.0075 at $5.2025. Funds were even on Thursday
CORN/SORGHUM      
·; Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 26 to 35 mbu corn
· USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum: U.S. corn acres for 2015 pegged at 89.0 million, down 1.8% from 2014
· Ethanol grind: 964,000 barrels per day for week end Feb. 13--up 3 thou vs. last week and 6.8% higher vs. last year
· T-storm Weather: Completely dry weather is now needed for second-crop corn in Brazil to be planted far in advance of the upcoming dry season; since dryness is not forecast, weather in March/April likely be more important than usual
· December 2015 corn futures closed at $4.19 ¾ on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled $4.68 ¼
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects soybeans, 14 to 20 mbu; soymeal, 150-300; soyoil, 10-50
· USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum: U.S. soybean acres for 2015 pegged at 83.5 million, down 0.2% from 2014
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain of 0.75”-1.50” is most likely across key central growing areas of Argentina on Tuesday-Wednesday. This keeps soybeans moist as a favorable pattern continues through the end of the month
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for all wheat
· T-storm Weather: 6”-12” of snow probable across eastern Colorado this weekend & potentially into southwest Kansas
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLH15, +$0.04 at $51.20; QRBH, +0.0059; QNGH, +$.066; and QHOH, -$.008
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago up 1/8; New York and Gulf steady; Dallas down 1; Tampa eased 1 ½; and LA was 4 higher at $1.61 ½ per gallon
· RINs were mixed: 2013’s off ½ at 70-72; 2014’s steady at 71 ¼-72 ¾; and 2015’s up 1/8 at 71-72
· The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread has widened .0059 to $.1651/gallon on Friday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were up 14-cents on Thursday and are 82-cents higher compared to last week
· Cattle on Feed estimates: On-feed, 100.0% (range 99.4-100.4); placed, 86.3% (83.0-91.8); marketed, 91.2% (90.6-93.9)
· On Thursday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 64-cents but is up 34-cents vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.53 to $60.40. April futures up $2.825 to $67.05 and is $6.65 above the index
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