HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans, Down ½; 5-6; Wheat, 6-11 Lower
· News stories have it that a cease-fire has been announced in eastern Ukraine but this may not have a lot of creditability with other sources suggesting that only “an agreement has been reached on a cease-fire regime”. This and greater expectations for more monetary support to the EU economy have markets there higher this morning. The DAX was 1.6% higher; France’s CAC-40 was up 1.4% & the FTSE, +.9% (AP sources). The U.S. is following along: futures have the Dow up 74; the S&P 8.25 points higher and the Nasdaq, +16.75. Outside markets: energy futures are higher; gold is $.60/oz weaker and the $ Index, off .115 at 82.895
· T-Storm Weather: After a few thunderstorms within Wednesday-Saturday, several days of dry and cool weather follow / continue. Sharp warming recurs early next week, helping new thunderstorms to form – most likely within Sept. 8-11. Outside of a few thunderstorms today and tonight in wet spring wheat areas of the northern Plains, best rain chances hold until around Monday-Tuesday when a strong cool front passes. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms dot the Delta through the period
· Sep Corn Down $.0250 at $3.5325; December Down $.0225 at $3.6150. Deliveries: 0. The funds began the week selling 7 K
· Sep Soybeans Down $.0625 at $10.91; Nov Down $.0575 at $10.29. Del’y: SBO, 335. The funds bought 4 K SB; 5 K SBM; even SBO
· Sep Wheat Down $.1125 at $5.3225; December Down $.0575 at $5.4925. Del’y: 155 HRW; 231 SRW. The funds sold 5 K Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: USDA pegs U.S. Good/Excellent corn ratings up one point to 74%. Updated ATI crop size up 110mbu from last week to 14.378Bbu; yield at 171.5bpa
· ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet--13/14 carryout up 6mbu to 1.124Bbu; 14/15 up 86 mil to 1.972Bbu
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn in dent stage at 53% compared to 39% last year and the 5-year avg. of 59%
· T-storm Weather: Ground and upper-level air temperatures in the U.S. will remain too warm to support a widespread killing freeze for the foreseeable future
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. soybean ratings up two points to 72%; crop size up 43 million to 3.947Bbu
· ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet--13/14 carryout dn 2 mil at 121mbu; 14/15 up 41 million to 563mbu
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain the next 2 weeks; above-average amounts (2.00” – 3.00”) centered on Corn Belt
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. spring wheat dn 3 points to 63%; adjusted HRS crop est dn 7 mil at 548mbu
· ATI Research: Updated HRW wheat balance sheet--14/15 carryout at 176bu, down 25% from last year & a 7-year low
· T-storm Weather: 43% of U.S. spring wheat production received at least 200% of its average rainfall over last 30 days
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLV14, +$0.80 at $93.68; QRBV,+$0.0300; QNGV, +$.025; and QHOV, +$.0228
· Cash ethanol markets were steady to weaker on Monday: Chicago down 2 ½; Gulf, Dallas and Tampa all unchanged; New York off 1 ½; and LA was 3 ¾ lower at $2.37 ¼ per gallon
· RINs steady to slightly firmer: 2012’s unch at 49-49 ½; 2013’s up 1/8 at 49 ¼-49 ½; & 2014’s added 1/8 to 49 ¼-49 ½
· The October RBOB/October Ethanol spread closed at $.5140 yesterday, off $.0759/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
· Choice boxed beef values eased 19-cents yesterday and have lost $16.30 over the last 17 trading days
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $155.45 on a live basis, up $2.31 from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value increased 60-cents yesterday and has gained $3.07 over the last 3 trading days
· CME Lean Hog Index down $1.11 to $96.45. October futures up $1.75 to $99.875 and are $3.425 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather