HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2-3 Higher; Soybeans, 12-13 Higher; Wheat,4-6 Higher.
· Overseas markets were mixed on Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng increased 0.55% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 established a new 7-year high before ending up 0.43%. However, Europe is down, -1.27% (DAX) and -0.44% (FTSE). The DOW and S&P managed to notch a fifth-consecutive record close on Tuesday, but early trends suggest some profit-taking may develop today as the trend is weaker: DOW futures, -62; S&P, -8; NAS, -15. Outside markets: gold, +$1.30; energy futures, weaker; $ Index, down .069
· T-storm Weather: Except for a few thunderstorms from Paraguay into South Brazil, mainly dry weather improves conditions for corn and soybean planting in Argentina, South Brazil, and Paraguay over the next week. Temperatures also turn hot in Argentina as maximums reach the 90s from this weekend forward, but stay seasonable in South Brazil and Paraguay. The next chance for rain remains difficult to assess, but probably holds until within Nov. 20-22. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms improve soil moisture for first-crop corn and soybean planting / growth in much of Center-west and Southeast Brazil through Thursday-Friday
· Dec Corn Up $.0275 at $3.765; March Up $.025 at $3.89. On Tuesday, the funds bought 5 K. 0 ethanol deliveries
· Nov SB Up $.1225 at $10.7875; Jan Up $.125 at $10.765. Funds: bought 12 K SB, +10 K SBM, +6 K SBO. 0 SB deliveries
· Dec Wheat Up $.0625 at $5.315; March Up $.0425 at $5.35. Fund bought 5 K on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM      
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports estimated at 20-25mbu per week near-term; 15-20 via Gulf, 0-2 via PNW, 2-5 Interior
· T-storm Weather : A round of rain will eventually be needed in parts of the corn producing region of Argentina. The next chance for rain remains most probable to hold until within Nov. 20-22
· Private crop consultant: Brazil full-season corn planting slowed by too much rain in far south, too little in northeast
· Ethanol margins: $0.71 per gallon vs. $0.48 last week and very near $0.54 in 2013. EIA report out Thursday.
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· November 2014 soybean futures closed at $10.66 ½ on Tuesday, the highest closing price since Aug. 11
· ATI Research: The 4-week average U.S. soybean export sales pace is 55.5 mbu, which is up 2.5 million from a year ago, 20 mbu per week above the 5-year average and the best showing for this time of year in at least 20 years
· Private crop consultant: Nationwide the Brazilian soybean crop is approximately 46% planted compared to 55% last year and the 59% average. Less than ideal start; too wet in the South and too dry in the Northeast
· ATI Research: Total export sales of U.S. wheat the past 4 weeks are the lowest since at least the mid-1980s
· Indications are the Australia wheat crop may be closer to 22.0-23.0 MMT compared to the latest USDA est of 24.0
ENERGY
· Futures are lower: QCLZ14, -$0.68 at $77.26; QRBZ, -$0.0015; QNGZ, -$.076; andQHOZ, -$.0106
· A mixed trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago added 2 ¾; Gulf up 3 ½; New York down 2 ½; Tampa steady; Dallas tacked on ½; and LA was a penny higher at $2.30 per gallon
· RINs were mixed: 2013’s up 1/8 at 46 ¼-47; 2014’s added 1/8 to 47-47 ¼; and 2015’s were 5/8 lower at 45 ¾-46 ¾
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol spread increased $.0025 cents to $.1826 on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were 83-cents higher on Tuesday but are 17-cents lower vs. a week ago
· Daily estimated cattle slaughter on Tuesday was 107,000 compared to 115,000 last week and 122,000 last year
· USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.44 on Tuesday but is 15-cents lower compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.01 to $87.93. December futures up $0.35 to $89.90 and are $1.97 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com