HIGHLIGHTS

·        Market Trend:  Corn, Down 2; Soybeans,  Up 3-4;  Wheat, Down 1-2  

·        Overseas markets took a cue from yesterday’s U.S. action and are decidedly to the down side this morning.  The Nikkei came back from holiday and promptly lost 2.4%; the Hang Seng and Kospi were both .2% lower while the Shanghai Composite bucked the trend to close up .6%.  Elevated prices of U.S stocks weighed on Europe; early trading had key bourses off .6 to 1%.  U.S. futures appeared poised to recoup some of Monday’s losses:  S&P, Up 3 ¼; Dow, Up 19 and Nasdaq, up 3 ½.  Gold is ¼% lower; the $ Index is up .044 at 80.655 and the energy complex is mostly higher

·        Brazil’s weather forecast is little changed: heavier than needed amounts may fall in parts of Mato Grosso do Sul, western Parana and Santa Catarina this week but the major events are likely next week across Parana/Sao Paulo to eastern Mato Grosso.  Argentina will dry down through Thursday with the next rain event expected around the 20^th of the month with 80% coverage of ½ to ¾’, mostly south and southwest. 

·        Mar Corn Down $.02 at $4.3250; May Down $.0225 at $4.4025.  Funds buy 3 K on Monday

·        Jan SB Up $.0425 at $13.31; Mar SB Up $.0325 at $12.7775  Funds bought 7 K SB, 6 SBM and  sold 4 K SBO

·        Mar Wheat Down $.0125 at $5.7225; May Wheat Down $.0150 at $5.79.  The funds bought 2 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM

• ATI Research: carry-out estimated at 1.656 bbu—lower production, strong SON feed/residual use

·         Cordonnier remains at 68.5 for Brazil corn crop; lowers Argentina ½  MMT to 22.5

·         Corn exports little changed at 20.9 million this week, 8 below implied rate needed to reach USDA forecast; milo at 2.7 million comes up 800,000 bushels short

·         November U.S. exports of DDGS were a record.  Jan-Nov shipments are up 27%  year to year at 8.7 MST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: 13/14 soybean ending stocks estimated at 140; export sales exceed USDA forecast, more rationing?

·         ATI Research:  Notes Kansas wheat seedings down 7% year to year, at a 4-year low; potential for less abandonment could add 1-2 million acres to harvested total this year

·         Argentina’s Ag Minister raises wheat forecast 200 K to 9.2 MMT; Friday, USDA went from 11.5 down to 10.5

·         ATI Research:  record low SON feed/residual use of -157 mbu--60 mbu downward adjustment to USDA forecast

• Wheat inspections nearly double from LW to 25.2 million, well above 17.8 mbu/week implied USDA forecast
• ATI Research—when will bean demand fade? Latest 4-week average of 54 mbu is 15 per week ABOVE 5 year ave
• Cordonnier:  Brazil crop continues at 90.0; Argentina cut 1.5 MMT to 54.5 on high temps, lack of rainfall
• Brazil exports poised to expand?  Attache report concludes more northern ports could increase capacity 3-5 MMT/yr

ENERGY

·         Energy markets—mostly firmer: QCLG14,+$0.18 at $91.97; QRBG, -$0.0050; QNGG,+$.045 and QHOG, +$.046

·         Cash ethanol markets slipped on Monday: Chicago down 1 3/4; the Gulf was off 1 ½; Tampa and Dallas fell 3 ¼ to 4 cents; NY declined 3 ½ cents and LA backed off 7 cents

·         RINs were mixed: 2012’s rose 1 to 29 ½ to 30 ½; 2013’s up 1 ½, 30 ½- 31 1/2; 2014’s were a ½ higher, 30-31

·         The February RBOB/February ethanol edged in $.022 per gallon to $.6841 on Monday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       ​                        &​nbsp;           

• Choice boxed beef values gained $1.96 yesterday to set a new record high of $216.94/cwt
• USDA 5-area average steer price for last week was $139.68, up $2.15 from the week before and a new record high
• The USDA pork carcass cutout value eased 12-cents yesterday and has lost 23-cents over the last two trading days
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained 90-cents yesterday to $78.13

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather