HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2; Soybeans, Up 2-3; Wheat, Down 3-4
· New Fed Chief Yellen offers 1st bit of insight to Congress tomorrow—overseas markets are mixed: Shanghai, +2%; the Nikkei, 1.8% but Hang Seng slips .4%. Europe finds the FTSE off .05%; the DAX is .04% weaker and the CAC-40, +.12%. U.S. futures don’t look particularly enthusiastic: Dow, down 52; S&P, 6 ¼ lower; the Nasdaq, 5 ¾ in the red. Traders weigh short-term volatility of economic data against a “gradually” improving U.S. economy. Gold is $9.50 higher at $1,272.40; the $ Index is little changed, 80.755 and the energy markets are all a little lower.
· T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure causes hot and dry weather to continue across Brazil through midweek, while also causing heavy thunderstorms to continually unfold in Argentina. The pattern shifts late this week and weekend as a cool front shifts northward and brings a round of seasonably-heavy rainfall to southern Brazil and Paraguay, while allowing for needed drying to unfold in Argentina. He does, however, note that the driest areas of Minas Gerais will remain very dry the next week tot 10 days. The pattern that follows is difficult to assess, but it remains most probable for upper-level high pressure to re-establish, thereby preventing a wet pattern from developing across Brazil.
· Mar Corn Down $.0175 at $4.4250; May Down $.0250 at $4.4750. The funds closed out the week buying 2 K
· Mar SB Up $.0225 at $13.3375; May Up $.02 at $13.1950. Funds bought 4 K SB, 3 K SBM and sold 2 SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.03 at $5.7450; May Wheat Down $.0375 at $5.7550. The funds sold 3 K on Friday
CORN/SORGHUM
· WASDE report at 11:00 CST: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout, 1.620Bbu vs. 1.631 in Jan.; range of 1.570-1.748
· ATI Research: Crop insurance base pricing update—Avg. of December 2014 corn futures for Feb. 3-7 was $4.57 ½
· T-storm Weather: Best rain chances this week are south & west of driest corn areas of & adjacent to Southeast Brazil
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 29.2 needed; 21.6 last week. Milo—3.5 needed; 6.9 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 16,471 contracts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· WASDE report at 11:00 CST: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout, 145mbu vs. 150 in January; range of 130-164
· ATI Research: Crop insurance base pricing update—Avg. of November 2014 soybean futures for Feb. 3-7 was $11.14
· T-storm Weather: Field flooding is probable to develop across soybean areas of Argentina through midweek
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 11.1 needed; 45.4 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 9,884 contracts
· WASDE report at 11:00 CST: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout, 606mbu vs. 608 in January; range of 574-653
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 18.5 needed; 11.7 last week
· Commitment of Traders: CBT Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions increase 4,284 contracts
ENERGY
· The energies are lower: QCLH14, -$0.32 at $99.56; QRBH, -$0.0019; QNGH, -$.103 and QHOH, -$.0065
· Gains were seen across the board in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago and Gulf were 3 higher; NY jumped 14; Tampa and Dallas climbed 5 ½; and LA gained 6 to $2.21 ½ per gallon
· RINs nearly steady: 2012’s gained ¾ to 50 ½-52 ½; 2013’s were ¾ higher at 51 ½-53 ½; and 2014’s up ¾ at 51 ½-53 ½
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread moved out $.0279 on Friday to $.7919 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef values fell $2.74 Friday and have declined $29.28 from there January 22 record high of $240.05
· Cash cattle lightly traded Friday afternoon at mostly $141, down $4 to $5 from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout firmed 86-cents Friday and has increased $1.00 over the last two trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.81 Friday to $81.79
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather