HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2; Soybeans, Up 1-2; Wheat, ½ to 1 Lower
· Wall Street sold off late in the day on weakness from the banking and energy sectors. This sentiment has migrated overseas and is compounded by escalating violence in Iraq. The Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai all lost ground with the former down .71%. Europe is similarly weaker: FTSE, off .61%; the DAX, .37% lower and the CAC 40, down .67%. Futures for major U.S. indices have finally worked “marginally” higher: S&P, +1.75; Dow, +4 and the NAS, +.50. Despite the unrest in Iraq, energy futures are mostly lower; the $ Index is every so slightly higher, +.007 at 80.400 and gold, $7.60 to the downside
· T-Storm Weather: Hot upper-level high pressure stays to the west of key agricultural areas through at least 10-14 days. Its eastern flank occasionally bubbles into the central U.S., but its expansion will be halted by cool fronts that slide across the Corn Belt. The setup remains conducive to areas of thunderstorms over the next week as waves of energy flow inland from the Pacific, initially focusing south of wettest corn and soybeans (but including the HRW and SRW wheat belts), then on wettest areas withinSaturday-Monday; 1.00” - 3.00” amounts most common
· July Corn Down $.0225 at $4.4075; September Down $.0250 at $4.3425. The funds sold 4 K on Tuesday
· July Soybeans Up $.01 at $14.1450; August Up $.0275 at $13.6050. Funds: sold 6 K SB; 5 K SBM and bought 3 K
· July Wheat Down $.0075 at $5.7025; September Down $.0150 at $5.7925. The funds sold 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Bias is U.S. corn exports to average 38mbu per week; 25 from Gulf; 9-10 via PNW; and 4-6 from Interior
· USDA June 30 reports, avg. trade guess: Acreage, 91.7 mil (unch from March); Grain Stocks, 3.723Bbu (2.766 last year)
· Ethanol margins declined to $0.62 per gallon vs. $0.73 last week and $0.21 last year. EIA report out at 9:30 AM CDT
· T-storm Weather: Less rain expected June 30–July 6; warmer pattern likely follows for 2nd week of July but rain recurs
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to range from 2-4mbu per week
· USDA June 30 reports, avg. trade guess: Acreage, 82.2 mil (vs. 81.5 in March); Grain Stocks, 382mbu (435 last year)
· Chicago July 2014 wheat futures traded to $5.70 on Tuesday--the lowest level since Feb. 4
· ATI Research: Near-term all wheat exports likely to continue to range from 15-20mbu per week
· T-storm Weather: Above-average rain for northern Kansas/southern Nebraska this week to slow HRW wheat harvest
· USDA June 30 reports, avg. trade guess: Acreage, 55.8 mil (unch from March); Grain Stocks, 597mbu (718 last year)
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly lower: QCLQ14, +$.54 at $106.57; QRBQ, -$0.0185; QNGQ, -$.001; and QHOQ, -$.0126
· Mixed tone in cash ethanol prices on Tuesday: Chicago off ½; Gulf and Dallas up 2 ½; New York slipped a penny; Tampa gained a nickel; and LA edged 1 ½ higher to $2.37 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, -1.2 mb (+4.0); gasoline, +1.2 (+2.2); distillates, +0.8 (-0.3)
· Weaker trend in RINs: 2012’s off 1 ¼ to 55 ½-56; 2013’s down 1 ¼ to 55 ½-56; and 2014’s were1 ¾ lower at 55 ½-56
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread widened $.0252 per gallon to $1.0628 yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef values increased 89-cents yesterday and have gained $12.77 over the last eight trading days
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking around $152, but no packer bids. Cattle traded last week at $149 to $150
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $2.41 yesterday and has increased $10.01 over the last 7 trading days.
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.29 to $121.68. July future up $2.125 to $130.425 and are $8.745 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather