HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2; Soybeans, SQ, Up 6; SX, Down 4-5; Wheat, 2-3 Lower
· World equity markets are likely to close out the week on a lower note as concerns from Iraq and Russian/the Ukraine mount. Much of Asia is lower—Nikkei, off nearly 3%; the Hang Seng is down a ¼% but Shanghai managed to close up .31% as July export data revealed a 14.5% increase yr to yr. S Korea Kospi lost 1.1% and Australia fell 1.3%. Key European markets are from .36% (France) to .90% (DAX) lower in early trade. U.S. markets look for a weaker opening—Dow futures are off 28; the S&P, -3 ¼ and the NAS, down 6 ¾’s. Energy futures are higher across the complex; the $ Index is trading .190 lower at 81.415 and gold is assuming its safe-haven function, up $6.50 at $1,317.30.
· T-Storm Weather: The main rain event for at least the next five days moves east-southeast through today, aiding crops in the southern Corn Belt and Delta. A few other areas of rain occur through Sunday-Monday with the best chance in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota within today-Sunday. Otherwise, a multi-day period of cool and dry weather remains probable to begin around Monday. We are forecasting a warmer and potentially wetter pattern from late next week forward, but confidence is not high
· Sep Corn Down $.02 at $3.5750; December Down $.02 at $3.6925. The funds sold back the 6 K purchased Wednesday
· August Soybeans Up $.0650 at $12.5650; Sep Up $.0075 at $11.00. Funds sold 2 K SB Thu; 1 K SBM and 2 K SBO
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: After the #2 wettest June, #21 driest July, and #5 coolest July in 120 years, the proportion of U.S. corn rated “god or excellent” is the highest since 2004
· U.S. corn in the dough stage as of Aug. 10 likely to range from 50-55% compared to 30% last year & 5-year avg. of 45%
· December 2014 corn futures settled $3.71 ¼ Thurs.; December 2013 futures closed at $4.58 ¼ on same date in 2013
· U.S. new-crop corn export sales as of July 31 were 305mbu compared to 366 last year and the 5-year avg. of 273 mil
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather: Result of current pattern is that the southwest half of U.S. soybeans will have received beneficial rainfall by early next week but many to the north will have been left drier than ideal leading into mid-month
· U.S. new-crop soybean export sales as of July 31 were 625mbu vs. 589 last year and the 5-year avg. of 444 mil
· November 2014 soybean futures settled $10.78 Thurs.; November 2013 closed at $11.65 ¾ on same date in 2013
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat export sales last 4 weeks to destinations other than China are a 6-year high of 20mbu
· Chicago July 2015 wheat futures settled $6.18 ½ Thurs.; July 2014 futures closed at $6.69 ½ on same date in 2013
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLU14, +$.70 at $98.04; QRBU, +$0.0135; QNGU,+$.018; and QHOU, +$.0144
· On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were mostly firmer: Chicago gained 2 ½; Gulf jumped 6; Tampa eased ½; New added 2 ½; Dallas up 1; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $2.28 ½ per gallon
· RINs steady to slightly higher: 2012’s up ¼ to 53-54; 2013’s steady at 53-54; and 2014’s gained ¼ to 53 ½-54
· The September RBOB/September Ethanol spread gained a ¼ cent to $76.23/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY </strong>
· After falling $1.30 on Wednesday, Choice boxed beef values firmed 44-cents yesterday
· Cash cattle continued to lightly trade yesterday with sales in Texas at $161, about $1 below last week’s price
· After falling $1.47 during the previous two days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 26-cents yesterday
· CME Lean Hog Index down $1.15 to $122.22. August future down $1.175 to $115.225 and are $6.995 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather