HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, Down 2;  Soybeans, Down 9; Wheat,  Up 1-2

·         Asia closed mixed overnight—favorable export data helped lift the Nikkei to a higher close, up .18% and the Hang Seng recorded a .37% gain.  Shanghai edged .09% lower.  All of Europe is showing some weakness at mid-day:  FTSE, -.05%; DAX, also -.05% and the CAC 40, -.28%.  U.S. futures are marking time ahead of 2^nd quarter GDP data, but are all positive at this point:  S&P, +3.75; Dow, +31 and the NAS, +11.50.  Russia’s economy could worsen further as the U.S./Europe ratchet up financial sanctions, especially car sales with negative implications for the global auto industry.  Gold, +$.10 @ $1,298.40; $ Index,, +.08 @ 81.395 with energy mostly lower

·         T-Storm Weather: Cool weather with limited rainfall continues into the weekend.  A milder pattern follows.  Although the milder pattern allows waves of energy to flow into the central U.S. to improve rain chances, it is unclear whether humidity will be able to flow northward to turn thunderstorms into large clusters.  Therefore, we are only forecasting near- or below-average rainfall of 0.50” – 1.00” for August 4-10 

·         Sep Corn Down $.02 at $3.59; December Down $.0225 at $3.6875. The funds sold 6 K on Tuesday

·         August Down $.09 at $12.1750; Sep Down $.0925 at $11.1225.  Funds sold 5 K SB; 4 K SBM and 2 K SBO yesterday

·         Sep Wheat Up $.0125 at $5.2125; December Up $.0075 at $5.4450.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         T-storm Weather: If no rain occurs through Thursday morning, July will rank #15 driest of the last 120 years and #5 driest since 1960.  That said, June was #2 wettest in 120 years, which has left deep subsoil profiles moist

·         Private crop consultant notes that the majority of the Corn Belt has ample soil moisture and any developing dryness is in areas where the corn is more advanced in its development and thus less sensitive to yield losses due to dryness

·         ATI Research: U.S. milo exports projected to range from 2-6mbu per week in the near-term,

·         Ethanol margins: $0.81 per gallon vs. $0.84 last week and above $0.45 a year ago.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

 

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Combined old/new unshipped U.S. soybean export sales are the 2^nd highest on record for mid-July

·         Private crop consultant: Timing of rain for soybeans in August is probably more important than total amount of rain 

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. spring wheat crop ratings were the highest of the season for the week ending July 27

·         ATI Research: Export sales of U.S. hard red spring wheat the past 4 weeks are a 7-year high of 18mbu

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly lower: QCLU14, +$.41 at $101.40; QRBU, -$0.0028; QNGU, -$.003; and QHOU, -$.0006

·         A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago off ½; New York slipped 2; Gulf added ½; Dallas up 1; Tampa steady; and LA was ½ lower at $2.33 ½ per gallon

·         EIA estimates (API): Crude, -1.8 mb (-4.4); gasoline, +0.8 (+0.1); distillates, +1.0 (+0.5)

·         RINs were firmer: 2012’s up ½ at 52-53; 2013’s gained ¾ to 53-53 ½; and 2014’s were 1 higher at 53-53 ½

·         The August RBOB/August widened out $.0277 to $.6859/gallon as corn weakened yesterday  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                 

&mi​ddot;         Choice boxed beef values gained $2.04 yesterday to a fourth daily record high of $261.34

·         Cash cattle are quiet with feedyard asking $168 to $170, but no packer bids. Cattle traded last week at mostly $163

·         After easing 73-cents Monday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 11-cents yesterday

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.85 to $128.91.  August future down $2.225 to $121.45 and are $7.46 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather