HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2; Soybeans, Down 1-3; Wheat, Down 1-2
· Overseas markets are mixed in anticipation of key data from the U.S. and China later this week. Asia had a good day: the Hang Seng moved up .87%; Shanghai closed .24% higher and the Nikkei gained .57% on favorable #’s from the auto sector. Europe started slow but is now positive: DAX, +.20%; CAC 40, +.22% and the FTSE, +.29%. Futures for major U.S. indices are slightly higher: Dow, +12; S&P, +0.75 and the Nasdaq, +4. Outside markets find energy futures mostly higher; gold is up $4.50 to $1,307.80 and the $ Index is .023 higher at 81.145
· T-Storm Weather: Unseasonable coolness continues into the weekend. A few showers accompany coolness, but organized rainfall focuses mainly across the southwest Plains. Temperatures moderate from this weekend forward, but are not expected to turn warm. A warmer pattern remains probable withinAug. 8-13. However, we are concerned that tropical humidity and energy may be disconnected by the surface-level high, thereby allowing thunderstorms to form, but limiting coverage and amounts
· Sep Corn Down $.02 at $3.6575; December Down $.0225 at $3.7450. Funds bought 4 K to open the week
· August Down $.0150 at $12.35; Sep Down $.03 at $11.34. Funds bought 4 K SB; 3 K SBM and 2 K SBO yesterday
· Sep Wheat Down $.0125 at $5.3350; December Down $.02 at $5.5575. The funds sold 1 K Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: USDA estimates U.S. Good/Excellent corn condition ratings down a point to 75%. Updated ATI crop size up 3mbu from a week ago to 14.155Bbu with the national average yield now forecast at 168.8bpa
· ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet--13/14 carryout dn 15mbu to 1.247Bbu; 14/15 down 15 mil to 1.673Bbu
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn in dough stage at 17% compared to 8% last year and the 5-year avg. of 16%
· T-storm Weather: July is on pace to rank #7 coolest of the last 120 years across the Corn Belt but will rank among the 5 coolest based on upcoming below-normal temperatures through the end of the month
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. soybean ratings decline two points to 71%; crop size dn 6 million to 3.832Bbu
· ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet--13/14 carryout unch at 126mbu; 14/15 down 6 million to 453mbu
· T-storm Weather: Proportion of U.S. soybeans that are drier than usual at topsoil level is 66%--highest since May 30
· ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. spring wheat ratings were steady at 70%; HRS crop size up 2 mil at 520mbu
· ATI Research: Updated SRW wheat balance sheet--14/15 carryout at 190mbu, which would be second highest ever
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly firmer: QCLU14, -$.06 at $101.62; QRBU, +$0.0136; QNGU, +$.011; andQHOU, +$.0148
· Cash ethanol markets were higher on Monday: Chicago gained 3 ¼; New York added 3; Gulf up 1; Dallas was 2 ¼ firmer; Tampa jumped 9 ½; and LA was 8 higher at $2.34 per gallon
· RINs were mostly lower: 2012’s down ½ at 51-53; 2013’s unch at 52-53; and 2014’s were ¼ lower at 52-52 ½
· The August RBOB/August ethanol spread tugged in close to 6 ¼ cents, to $.6582/gallon—strength in corn
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values gained $1.92 yesterday to a third daily record high of $259.30
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was a record high $163.26, up $7.21 from the week before
· After firming 25-cents on Friday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value lost 73-cents yesterday
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.57 to $129.76. August future up $0.05 to $123.675, but are $6.085 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather