HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, Down 2-3; Soybeans, 7-8 Lower; Wheat, ½ to 1 Lower   

·         Repeating from the last few days:  U.S. economy concerns/budget battle in Washington seem to be the market drivers of late. Some pundits of the opinion the mere prospect of a government shut-down is likely to weigh further on equity values until the issue is resolved.  In Asia, the Nikkei and Kospi were both higher while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite each closed lower.  EU bourses are weaker but for the moment at least, U.S. futures are in the green:  S&P, up 2 ½; Nasdaq, +11 ¾ and Dow, +21.  External markets find gold $1.70 higher at $1,338; the energy complex is a little firmer and the $ Index is up .092 at 80.535.

·         South Brazil should receive from frequent showers over the next week, perhaps adding to already wet conditions. The Center-West region is expected to get scattered amounts though more would be appreciated as much of the area remains on the dry side. Here in the U.S., the WCB can expect ½ to 1” amounts late today through Sat; forecasts for the ECB are calling for slightly less than a ½” with coverage of 80-85% over the weekend.  Beyond that a drier period returns, accelerating harvest.

·         Dec Corn Down $.0250 at $4.5225; Mar Corn Down $.0225 at $4.65.  The funds bought 6 KWednesday  

·         Nov Soybeans Down $.07 at $13.1475; Jan SB Down $.0825 at $13.1575.  Funds bought 4 K SB, 3 K SBM and 0 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat Down $.0075 at $6.6975; Mar Wheat Down $.0075 at $6.80.  Funds buying totaled 5 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Export sales out at 7:30:  trade is expecting 16-24 million corn versus 14.4/week needed. Milo sales need to average 2.5/week to reach USDA forecast. LW:  17.2 corn and 1.9 milo

·         Some talk of Chinese interest in U.S. corn after the 1^st of the year

·         Ukraine corn into North Africa can be had for about a 40 cent/bushel discount to the U.S.

·         Trade looking for Sep 1 corn stocks of 681 mbu (552-750 range) and versus September WASDE 661 estimate

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Soy complex export sales estimates:  85-103 mbu SB versus 34 LY and 10.8/wk needed: SBM, 20-80 old and 75-150 new compared to a combined 47 K LW; SBO:  5-10 old and new compared to 20.6 K MT LW

·         Wheat Export Sales estimates:   18-26 versus 25.8 LW and 13.1/week needed

·         Nonghyup Feed, S Korea’s largest feed manufacturer overnight bought 55 k MT optional origin feed wheat at $284.49/MT ($7.74/bu) C&F for end of December arrival

·         Traders indicate the Argentine frost/freeze likely caused some damage to yields in the Cordoba and BA regions

·         Average estimate for September 1 SB stocks is 124 (106-155 range) with USDA at 125 in the last WASDE

·         September 1 wheat stocks estimates:  1.913 with a range of 1.819 to 1.999 bbu

·         All wheat production expected at 2.108 bbu (2.016-2.137), 6 million below the last USDA estimate

ENERGY

·         EIA estimates (API):   crude oil stx, down 900 K (-100); gasoline, down 100 K (+300); distillates, down 300 K (+500)

·         Energy markets are firmer: QCLX13,  +$.38 to $103.03; QRBX, +0.0161; QNGX, +$.006 and QHOX, +$.0214

·         EIA #’s help drive spot ethanol higher:  Chicago, Up 14 ¼; NY, 1 ½ higher; Dallas and Tampa each gained 4 ½ cents; LA was up 3 and the Gulf edged a ½ higher

·         RINs: 2012’s were down 2 ¼ to 49-53; 2013’s eased 2 ½ to 50-53 and 2014’s dropped a like amount, to 51-54

·         Declining ethanol stocks narrowed the November RBOB/ethanol spread 5.63 cents, to $.7749/gallonon Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                      &n​bsp;                    ​

·         After gaining $1.38 over the previous two days, Choice boxed beef values eased 18-cents yesterday

·         After easing 58-cents over the previous two days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.40 yesterday

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.19 yesterday to $92.56

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 1.5% from LY, chick placements increase 3.5% from LY

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather