HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 2 ¼; Soybeans, Down ½ to 2; Wheat, Down 5-5 ½
· Asia finished mixed with the Nikkei gaining 1.2% and the Hang Seng, down .6%. Europe is like-wise trading mixed: FTSE, +.2%; the DAX, -.2% and the CAC-40, up .2%. Euro-zone December retail sales posted their largest decline in 2 ½ years, down 1.6% and far worse than the ½ point decline expected.—suggests pressure on ECB officials for further monetary easing. U.S. futures suggest a weaker start to the day: S&P, -2.25; the Dow, -10 and the Nasdaq, -5 ¼. Gold is up $6.25 per oz at $1,257.40; the energy complex is mostly higher and the $ Index is at 81.21, down .014.
· T-storm Weather: An unusual to exceptional pattern dominates South America for at least 10 more days as upper-level high pressure anchors across Brazil, thereby causing the jet stream to continually roar across Argentina. Widespread coverage of above-average temperatures and below- to far-below-average rainfall occurs in Brazil and Paraguay (except Mato Grosso), while very heavy rainfall develops flooding in Argentina. It is unclear when this pattern will break. Intensely cold weather is forecast overWednesday-Friday mornings in central/northern wheat areas; HRW wheat in parts of South Dakota vulnerable to winterkill
· Mar Corn Down $.0225 at $4.3950; May Down $.0225 at $4.4550. The funds bought 7 K on Tuesday
· Mar SB Down $.0075 at $13.1250; May SB Down $.0175 at $12.9575. Funds bought 8 K SB, 8 K SMB and 4 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.0525 at $5.7925; May Wheat Down $.0550 at $5.8125. The funds bought 7 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Feb. 10 WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout, 1.620Bbu vs. 1.631 in January; range of 1.570-1.748
· ATI Research: Recent corn export inspections have been around 25 million per week with a port area split of 16 for Center Gulf; 4 off PNW; & 4 from Interior. We project inspections to improve by 3-5 per week, mostly via Miss River
· Private consultant notes double-crop corn planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil has been delayed due to persistent wet weather that has slowed soybean harvest. The ideal corn planting window for this region has only 2-3 weeks left
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Feb. 10 WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout, 145mbu vs. 150 in January; range of 130-164
· ATI Research: We expect the 4-week average soybean export inspection pace a month from now to be down to 40mbu per week vs. 58+ currently
· Private consultant expressing concern about soybean yield potential in southern Brazil due to hot and dry conditions
· Feb. 10 WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout, 606mbu vs. 608 in January; range of 574-653
· ATI Research: We anticipate all wheat exports will average 15-20mbu per week short-term
· T-storm Weather: Key HRW wheat areas of/near Kansas benefit from 0.40”-0.80” of water; very heavy for February
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mostly higher: QCLH14, +$0.69 at $97.88; QRBH, +$0.0099; QNGH,-$.046 andQHOH, +$.0092
· Cash ethanol were steady to firmer on Tuesday: Chicago and Gulf were unch; NY up 4; Tampa gained 1 ½; Dallas was steady; and LA prices increased 2 cents to $2.18 per gallon
· EIA stocks estimates (API): crude, +2.2 (+0.4); gasoline, +1.1 (-1.2); distillates, -2.0 (-1.5)
· RINs rebounded: 2012’s up 1 ¾ to 42 ½-44 ½; 2013’s climbed 1 ¾ to 43-45; and 2014’s were 2 higher at 42 ½-45
· The March RBOB/February ethanol spread closed in 8+ cents, to $.6261 per gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   After dropping $17.95 over the previous five trading days, Choice boxed beef values firmed 40-cents yesterday
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards offerings at $146, but no packer bids. Cattle traded LW at $145 to $146
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.40 yesterday and has increased $1.96 over the last two days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 28-cents yesterday to $82.47
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather