HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, 4-6 Lower; Wheat, WK is steady
· Asian closed out Tuesday steady to higher following yesterday’s sell-off; the latter stemming from weak Chinese trade data. Bell-weather Nikkei gained .7%; Shanghai was .1% to the plus side with the Hang Seng trading flat. Europe was performing similarly in early trading with Ukraine uncertainty seemingly have little impact but lingering in the background: DAX, +.3%; CAC-40, +.3% and the FTSE, +.2%. U.S. futures are tad weaker: Dow, -14; S&P, -2 and the Nasdaq, -.75. Gold is $7.25/oz dearer this morning; energy futures are in positive territory and the $ Index is up .111 at 79.88
· T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure expands across Southeast Brazil through 7-10 days to suppress rainfall, but causes cool fronts to dissipate further to the south than in recent weeks. The end result is that near-average rainfall occurs through 10 days in Center-West and Southeast Brazil, while above-average amounts turn southern areas wet to slow harvesting. Second-crop corn generally benefits from this pattern since wettest areas turn drier, and seasonable to wet areas remain moist. To the south across Argentina, a round of unneeded thunderstorms Thursday-Friday slows corn and sunflower harvesting
· Mar Corn Down $.0150 at $4.7050; May Down $.0225 at $4.76. The funds sold 8 K on Monday
· Mar SB Down $.0425 at $14.15; May Down $.0525 at $14.1350. Funds sold 10 K SB; sold 8 K SBM and 6 K SBO
· Mar Wheat, NA; May Wheat Steady at $6.4075. The funds sold 6 K yesterday
· Deliveries: 2 Corn; 12 SB; 0 Wheat; 0 SBM and 89 SBO; 0 ethanol
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout up 33mbu vs. last week to 1.506Bbu; 14/15 up 34 million to 1.791Bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales represent 91% of USDA’s annual forecast, well ahead of 5-year average of 69%
· Export Inspections; Corn, 36.7mbu (35.2 needed). Milo, 7.2 (3.5) with China in for 7.1
· Private crop consultant boosts Brazil corn crop estimate unchanged at 68.5 MMT but may move lower (USDA at 70.0)
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout up 10mbu vs. last week at 121mbu; 14/15 up a like amount to 209mbu
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 39.7mbu (5.4 needed) with China taking 21.6
· Private consultant increases Argentina soybean crop estimate by 0.5 MMT to 54.0 MMT, which is equal to USDA
· ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat carryout unchanged vs. last week at 575mbu; 14/15 also unchanged at 667mbu
· Export Inspections: Wheat, 15.8mbu (23.3 needed)
· Slight improvement noted in USDA crop condition ratings for Kansas wheat: 37% Good/Excellent vs. 34% last week
ENERGY
· Futures are firmer: QCLJ14, +$0.31 at $101.43; QRBJ, +$0.0079; QNGJ, +$.006 and QHOJ, +$.0089
· Notably weaker cash ethanol markets on Monday—in some cases, sharply lower: Chicago down a nickel; Gulf 13 ½ lower; NY dipped 8; Tampa collapsed 30; Dallas off 38 ½; and LA prices plummeted 33 ½ to $3.01 ½ per gallon
· Slightly lower RINs: 2012’s off 1 ¾ to 50 ½-54; 2013’s down 1 ¼ at 52 ½-55; and 2014’s a penny weaker at 50 ½-54
· The April RBOB/April ethanol spread settled at $.6824/gallon on Monday, widening about $.0150
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $2.88 yesterday and have gained $25.15 over the last eleven trading days
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $149.00, down $1.61 from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $2.42 yesterday to a record high $113.55
· Lean hog futures set another new record high yesterday with nearby April settling at $116.00
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather