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Market Trend Corn, Down 1 to2, Soybeans, Down 7, Wheat, 2 to 3 Lower.

November 6, 2014 07:15 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, Down 7; Wheat, 2-3 Lower.   Europe:  Wheat, -1 ¾; Corn, NA                    

·     ​;    Market enthusiasm wanes, awaits Friday’s jobs report. Pundits say oil, not elections driving market in the short-term. Asia closes mostly lower; early European trade finds mixed results; DAX, +.09%; FTSE, -.18% and CAC 40, -.03%.   Pre-market indications have the DOW 6 lower; the S&P is off 2 ¾ and the NAS, off 1.  Crude’s off $.22/bbl; other energy futures slightly higher; gold $1.50 lower and the $ Index is ¼ point lower at 87.53

·         South America Weather: In the Center-West region of Brazil, mostly dry conditions are forecast today & Friday with near to above normal temperatures.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms are projected for South Brazil on Thursday & Friday with temps near to below normal.  Mostly dry conditions are forecast over the next week for Northern production areas of Argentina with near to above normal temps today & near to below normal on Friday.  In southern Argentina, mostly dry weather is forecast for today with some locally heavier rainfall possible Friday.  Temps near to above normal today, near to below normal Friday

·         Dec Corn Down $.02 at $3.6825; March Down $.0175 at $3.8125.  The funds bought 4 K on Wednesday.    16 K etoh deliveries

·         Nov SB Down $.0725 at $10.1325; Jan Down $.0575 at $10.1350.    Funds: bought 5 K SB, 4 K SBM, sold 3 K SBO.  No SB deliveries

·         Dec Wheat Down $.0275 at $5.22; March Down $.0350 at $5.3275.  Fund selling totaled 6 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                                &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;      

·         Nov. 10 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. for U.S. corn crop, 14.556 Bbu (vs. USDA’s October forecast of 14.475); average est. for 14/15 U.S. corn ending stocks, 2.164 Bbu  (vs. USDA’s October forecast of 2.081)

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 24 to 31mbu corn 

·         Another rapid week of U.S. corn harvest progress possible; largest increase from Nov. 2-9 since 1994 is approx. 16%

·         Ethanol grind: 929 thou barrels per day for week end Oct. 31—down 8 thou vs. last week but up 3.0% vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Nov. 10 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. for U.S. soybean crop, 3.969 Bbu (vs. USDA’s October forecast of 3.927); average est. for 14/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks, 449 mbu (vs. USDA’s October forecast of 450)

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects soybeans, 33 to 40mbu; soymeal, 100-250; soyoil, 5-30

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 12-19mbu for all wheat

·         Recent rain welcome for U.S. HRW wheat, but there is not a strong correlation between fall crop ratings & final yield

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly higher:   QCLZ14, -$0.14 at $78.54; QRBZ, +$0.0061; QNGZ, +$.012; andQHOZ, +$.0047

·         Notably higher trade on Wednesday in cash ethanol markets: Chicago up 7 ½; Gulf gained 3; New York jumped 8; Tampa added 3 ½; Dallas soared 9; and LA was a nickel higher at $2.09 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were mixed: 2013’s up ½ to 44 ½-45; 2014’s down ½ to 44 ¼-45 ¼; and 2015’s climbed 3/8 to 44-45

·         The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol spread tightened up $.0443/gallon, to $.1717 on a slight inventory pull

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​;                        ​        

· ​;        Choice boxed beef values were$1.10 higher on Wednesday but are down $2.39 vs. last week

·         December live cattle futures traded down to $164.90 on Wednesday--the lowest price for the contract since Oct. 17

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased 8-cents on Wednesday, is down $3.37 vs. last week & lowest since Feb. 19

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.56 to $88.72.  December futures down $0.85 to $87.125 & are $1.595 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

 

 

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