HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, Down 1-2: Soybeans, Up 5-7; Wheat, Up ½ to 1
· Today, world market thinking has the Fed tapering sooner, rather than later, based on Wednesday’s ADP report showing a 238 K addition to U.S. payrolls in December. Government data will be out Friday. Results: Nikkei, down 1.5%; Shanghai Composite, off .8% and the Hang Seng, .9% lower. Europe is slightly higher: CAC-40, +.17%; FTSE, +.27% and the DAX, +.43%. S&P and Dow futures were both .1% lower. Gold is up $1.60; the $ Index is off .042 at 81.12 and energies, mostly higher
· T-storm Weather: A cool front triggers scattered thunderstorms across central Argentina tomorrownight and Friday, but misses southern corn, soybeans, and sunflower in the south (Buenos Aires and La Pampa). Although the cool front breaks ongoing heat through the weekend, heat re-develops for at least several days next week as dryness continues in the south. The next chance for rain is difficult to assess, but likely holds until around January 15-16 when a cool front approaches. To the north, occasional thunderstorm clusters improve soil moisture across South Brazil and Paraguay
· Mar Corn Down $.02 at $4.15; May Down $.0175 at $4.2350. Funds sell 10 K at mid-week
· Jan SB Up $.0550 at $13.0625; Mar SB Up $.0725 at $12.7650 The funds sold 5 K SB , 4 K SBM and 3 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0075 at $5.8950; May Wheat Up $.0050 at $5.95. The funds sold 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· New lows were made Wednesday for all 2014 corn contracts: March; $4.14 ¾; May, $4.42 ¾; July, $4.30; September, $4.36 ¼; and December, $4.43 ¼
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 8 to 28mbu corn
-
T-storm Weather: Rain is needed across Argentina corn producing areas because many locations received less than one-half of their average over the last 30 days and have accumulated deficits of 2.00”-4.00”
-
EIA pegs ethanol production for latest week at 919 thous barrels per day, which is up 6 thous compared to last week
· ATI Research: Implied corn feed/residual use in Sept-Nov (via Grain Stocks report) est. at 2.143Bbu vs. 2.082 last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
-
Export Sales: Trade expects 17 to 35mbu soybeans; soymeal, 50-175 K MT; soyoil, 0-60 KMT
· ATI Research: Year-to-date U.S. export sales of soybeans have already surpassed the annual forecast, which is unprecedented for this time of year. An increase in the USDA export forecast appears likely in Friday’s WASDE report
-
T-storm Weather: Dryness becomes increasingly notable in soybean producing areas of Center-West and Southeast Brazil (and Bahia) over the next week as upper-level high pressure suppresses thunderstorms
· New lows were made Wednesday for all 2014 Chicago wheat contracts: March; $5.86 ¾; May, $5.92 ¾; July, $5.96 ½; September, $6.06; and December, $6.19 ¾
· Export Sales: Trade looking for 7 to 18mbu all wheat
· ATI Research: Implied wheat feed/residual use in Sept-Nov (via Grain Stocks report) est. at -90mbu vs. -32 last year
ENERGY
· Energy markets—mostly firmer: QCLG14,+$0.24 at $92.56; QRBG, +$0.0192; QNGG, -$.053 and QHOG, +$.0107
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Wednesday: Chicago off 3 ½; Gulf down 2 ½; Dallas up a penny; Tampa 1 lower; New York dipped 3; and LA gained ¾ to $2.64 per gallon
· RINs weaker: 2012’s off 1 ¾ at 30-31; 2013’s down 1 ¼ at 31-32 ½; & 2014’s down 1 ½ at 30-31
· The February RBOB/February ethanol spread increased about a penny, to $.7433 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef values gained $2.82 yesterday and have increased $9.58 over the last four trading days
-
Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $139 to $140 while packers bid $135. Cattle LW set a record high $137
-
After increasing $1.93 the day before, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.38 yesterday
-
The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price eased 33-cents yesterday to $78.26
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather