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Market Trend Corn, Down 1 to 2, Soybeans, Mixed with SN up 1, Wheat, Down 2

July 1, 2014 07:09 AM

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, Mixed with SN up 1;  Wheat, Down 2

·         News seems to be in short supply this morning on the international scene.  The Nikkei posted an overnight gain of 1.08%; Shanghai edged .10% higher with the Hang Seng fading .13%.  Early trading in Europe is all positive—France’s CAC-40 is leading the way with a .70% rise; the FTSE is up .53% and the DAX is .35% higher. U.S. markets look to be in a similar mood:  Dow futures are 43 higher; the NAS is leaning towards an 11 ½ higher start and S&P futures are registering a 4 point gain.  Outside markets have the $ Index up .039 at 79.85; gold is $4.40 dearer, $1,326.20/oz and energy futures have turned mixed

·         T-Storm Weather: On the heels of the storms seen on Monday, a quieter pattern follows as unseasonably-cool high pressure slides across the Corn Belt through the remainder of the week.  Clouds and showers initially accompany coolness today, however, especially in northern areas of the Corn Belt and Plains.  A seasonably-warmer pattern begins this weekend as upper-level high pressure expands, but waves of energy and / or cool fronts keep heat focused west of key agricultural areas through at least mid-month, while triggering seasonably-scattered thunderstorms in varying areas from Friday-Saturday forward

·         July Corn Down $.0175 at $4.2250; September Down $.02 at $4.1675.  Deliveries:  3. Funds sold 30 K Monday

·         July SB Up $.01; August Down $.0125 at $13.2850.  Deliveries, 21 SB; 0 SBM, 545 SBO.  Funds: sold 20 K SB; 12 K SBM, 10 K SBO 

·         July Wheat Down $.02 at $5.6275; September Down $.0150 at $5.76.  Deliveries, 84 SRW; 54 HRW.  The funds sold 10 K Friday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         December 2014 corn futures made a contract low of $4.23 ½ on Monday; July 2014 reached the lowest level since

·         ATI Research: USDA pegs U.S. Good/Excellent corn condition ratings up a point to 75% vs. 74% last week.  Updated ATI crop size climbed 14mbu from a week ago to 14.098Bbu with the national average yield now forecast at 168.2bpa

·         T-storm Weather: Heat arrives this week but it stays west of key corn production areas and storms occasionally occur

·         ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet--13/14 carryout up 138mbu to 1.265Bbu; 14/15 up 151 mil to 1.812Bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. soybean ratings unchanged at 72%; crop size up 153 million to  3.823Bbu

·         ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet--13/14 carryout unchanged at 96mbu; 14/15 up 152 million to 503mbu

·         ATI Research: USDA Good/Excellent U.S. spring wheat ratings dn a point to 70% with HRS crop size up 27 mil to 517mbu due to higher planted/harvested acreage estimates from the USDA

·         ATI Research: Updated all wheat balance sheet--13/14 carryout at 590mbu; 14/15 at 605mbu

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed: QCLQ14, +$.36 at $105.74; QRBQ, +$0.0015 QNGQ, -$.022; and QHOQ, -$.0006

·         Cash ethanol markets moved lower as corn prices slid:  LA lost 5 ¾; Chicago was down 2 ¼ cents to $2.1025; NY and Dallas fell 1 1/2 ; the Gulf eased ½ cent and Tampa bucked the trend, posting a ½ cent gain

·         A little weaker:  2012’s eased ¼ cent to 53-56; 2013’s off ½ to 53-56; and 2014’s were also ½ lower, 53-56

·         The August RBOB/July ethanol spread backed off $.0168 to $0.9530/gallon on Monday  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                

·&nbs​p;        Choice boxed beef values gained $1.30 yesterday to a fourth consecutive daily record high of $247.28

·         The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was a record high $154.32, up $5.22 from the week before

·         After firming 36-cents on Friday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value eased 29-cents yesterday

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.72 to $126.80.  July future up $1.75 to $132.65 and are $5.85 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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