HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, Down 2-3;  Wheat, Mixed    

·         Yellen’s remarks suggesting a continuation of a Fed “easy money” policy boosted Asia overnight. The Nikkei closed up .56%; the Hang Seng gained 1.47% and Shanghai was up a more modest .3%.  Gains were also aided by a more sensible approach to raising the U.S. debt ceiling. Chinese growth concerns eased after January revealed faster growth in both imports and exports than previously expected.  European gains were more muted, up .1% to .6%.  U.S. futures, mostly higher—S&P, +.25%; Nasdaq, +2.25 and the Dow, -3.  Gold is .2% lower; the energy complex is higher again today and the $ Index is up 1/8, at 80.83

·         A new pattern begins the next few days in S AM—the current hot/dry upper-level high pressure will exit Brazil, moving the main storm track away from Argentina and into Center-West/South Brazil and Paraguay. Widespread rain is expected for much of the region with highest amounts in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, and lowest amounts across and adjacent to Minas Gerais. One more round of heavy t-storm clusters can be expected for central Argentina through today, and then end as the cooler pattern develops.  A few showers will reoccur next week, although the amounts should not be heavy. The U.S. wille njoy a warmer/sharply warmer pattern in the coming 10 days. Plains cattle and HRW wheat will be particularly mild daily highs in the 50s, 60s, 70s.

·         Mar Corn Down $.0150 at $4.40; May Down $.0175 at $4.4450.  The funds sold 6 K on Tuesday

·         Mar SB Down $.02 at $13.3275; May Down $.03 at $13.1750.  Funds bought 5 K SB; 4 K SBM and 1 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.0025 at $5.9050; May Wheat Down $.0050 at $5.8850.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         USDA in its 1^st farm income forecast for 2014 sees C/SB/W revenues falling 12%.  Ohio State prof expects 3, possibly as many as 5 years of reduced profitability from farming and raises balance sheet concerns

·         Surging spot natural gas prices slowing ethanol production but this is not expected to be a long-term situation

·         Europe reported to be on the verge of approving Pioneer 1507 corn variety for cultivation; would be only the 3^rd biotech seed to be accepted for use in the 28-nation bloc.  Yet, majority of members disapprove the use of biotech

·         Parana crop ratings worsen on dry weather:  state agency Deral reports % corn “good” falls 12% from a week ago to 77% TW; soybeans plunge 22 points to 66% “good”.  Safrinha crop is now 21% planted, up from 14% LW

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         CONAB raises Brazils wheat crop from 5.5 LM and 4.4 LY to 5.8 for the current campaign

·         Parana soybean harvest 20% complete, up 11 points this week

·         Rabobank expects China to import 4 MMT fewer wheat in 14/15 as domestic output recovers

·         ATI wheat S&D:  carry-out falls 20 mbu to 575:   +10 imports; +10 food demand; +20 exports

·         Brazil rumored to have shipped over 1 MMT of soybeans already TM; ATI estimate is 2.7 million

·         ATI Research:  internal 1.525 bbu soybean export # predicated on China cancelling/rolling to new crop 95 mbu

ENERGY

·         The energies are higher:  QCLH14, +$0.41 at $100.35; QRBH, +$0.0111; QNGH, +$.085 andQHOH, +$.0012

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed Tuesday:  LA showed the most strength, up 9 ½; Dallas picked up 6 ½ and Tampa, 5 ½; the Gulf was 2 ½ higher; NY slipped a ½ cent and Chicago was off 1 ½ cents to $1.97 ½ per gallon

·         EIA stocks estimates (API):   crude, +2.5 mb (+2.1); gasoline, -0.2 (-0.5); distillates, -2.1 (-1.5)

·         RINs, mostly higher:  2012’s gained 3/12 to 55-57; 2013’s were 3 3/8’s higher at 57-5875 and 2014’s eased 3 to 56-58

·         The March RBOB/March ethanol spread stays volatile:  widens 5 ¼ to $.7906 in yesterday’s trade—demand concerns

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;           

·      &​nbsp;  Choice boxed beef values fell $2.02 yesterday and are down $30.91 from their January 22 record high of $240.05

·         Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyard offerings at $144, but no packer bids. Cattle traded LW at $140 to $142

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout firmed 13-cents yesterday and has increased $1.50 over the last four trading days

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 18-cents yesterday to $83.54

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather