· Market Trend: Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, 5-8 Higher; Wheat, Steady to ¾’s Higher
· Carry-over from yesterday’s favorable U.S. and Chinese manufacturing data led Asia higher overnight: the Hang Seng rose 1.55%; Shanghai was .44% higher and the Nikkei posted a .29% gain. Europe is mostly following suit this morning with both the DAX and FTSE .2-.3% higher; the CAC 40 is .01% weaker, however. U.S. futures suggest a positive start to the day: S&P, +1.25; Dow, +13; NAS, +3.25. External markets have energy futures lower; gold is up $1.10 at $1,327.50 and the $ Index, +.03 at 79.875
· T-Storm Weather: Cool weather and a period of cloudiness focus on / adjacent the Corn Belt throughFriday-Saturday. A warmer pattern begins Saturday-Sunday as hot upper-level high pressure in the western U.S. expands, but waves of energy flow along the edge of warmth to drag cooler air southward and prevent heat from enveloping the corn and soybean belt. Occasional thunderstorms form in this pattern as energy flows along the edge of warmth, which is why we are forecasting near- or above-average rainfall of 1.00” – 2.00” for July 5-15, initially focusing on Iowa-Minnesota this weekend
· July Corn Down $.0175 at $4.21; September Down $.0150 at $4.1450. Deliveries: 5. Funds sold 7 K yesterday
· July SB Up $.08 at $14.0825; August Up $.0525 at $13.33. Deliveries, 3 SB; 0 SBM, 504 SBO. Funds: sold 7 K SB; 6 K SBM, 3 K SBO
· July Wheat Up $.0075 at $5.6050; September Unch at $5.7250. Deliveries, 51 SRW; 54 HRW. The funds sold 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2014 corn futures made a contract low of $4.17 on Tuesday
· ATI Research: Inspections model suggests U.S. corn exports to average 39mbu per week for the coming month
· Ethanol margins improved to $0.76 per gallon vs. $0.62 last week & minus $0.17 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
· T-storm Weather: 99% of U.S. corn was not drier than usual the last 90 days, limiting the potential for dryness issues
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Look for U.S. soybean meal exports to average 120-130 K MT per week over the next month
· USDA Crop Progress report shows U.S. soybean crop development far above 2013; 10% blooming vs. only 3% last year
· Private crop consultant notes importance of monitoring prospects for replanting soybeans in some ponded areas
· KCBT July 2014 wheat futures traded $6.93 ¼ on Tuesday--the lowest level since March 4
· ATI Research: Over the next month, U.S. all wheat exports likely to range from 15-20mbu per week
· T-storm Weather: Below-average rain is forecast for wheat in northern Kansas/southern Nebraska through July 6
ENERGY
· Futures are lower: QCLQ14, -$.35 at $105.00; QRBQ, -$0.0172; QNGQ, -$.003; and QHOQ, -$.0091
· Downward trend continued in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago eased ½; Gulf dropped a penny; Tampa declined 5 ½; Dallas slipped 2 ½; New York lost 1 ½; and LA was a nickel lower at $2.37 per gallon
· RINs were weaker: 2012’s down 2 at 51-54; 2013’s off 2 at 51-54; and 2014’s were 2 lower at 51-54
· The August RBOB/July ethanol spread backed off 1/3rd of a cent to $.9496/gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values gained 85-cents yesterday to a fifth consecutive daily record high of $248.13
· Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking $157 - $158, but no packer bids. Cash traded LW at $154 to $155
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.58 yesterday and has lost $1.87 over the last two days
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.71 to $127.51. July future down $1.60 to $131.05, but are $3.54 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather