HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, 11-15 Lower; Wheat, Mixed
· Global equity markets take stock of recent gains, some retracement occurring. Asia closed the day on a weaker tone: the Nikkei clawed its way back but ended .08% lower; the Hang Seng lost 1.55% and Shanghai fell 1.23%. Europe is mostly lower coming out of the gate with a .13% gain in the DAX offset by declines of .37% for the FTSE and a .07% slippage in France’s CAC 40. Brazil’s 7 to 1 loss to Germany in the World Cup said to have possible negative implications for consumer confidence there—so, it’s not only just “a game”? U.S. futures mixed: Dow, 2 lower; S&P, up ½; NAS, +2.75. Energy futures most lower; August Gold is $8.90 to the plus side and the $ Index is up a modest .009 to 80.23
· T-Storm Weather: Cool to unseasonably-cool weather dominates the central U.S. over the next two weeks. We will not be forecasting heat through this period based on the high probability for an upper-level system in southeast Canada to occasionally funnel coolness southward. The upper-level setup allows waves of energy and cool fronts to trigger thunderstorms in varying areas through the period, resulting in widespread coverage of at least near-average rainfall. Over the next week, the best chance for organized rainfall returns Thursday night and ends Sunday across the heart of the corn and soybean belt
· July Corn Down $.0125 at $4.07; September Down $.0175 at $3.9650. Deliveries: Corn, 0; Ethanol, 0. Funds sell 3 K Tuesday
· July SB Down $.1575 at $13.14; August SB Down $.12 at $12.3650. Deliveries: 3 SB; 0 SBM, 716 SBO. Funds: sold 10 K SB; 4 K SBM, 3 K SBO
· July Wheat Up $.0050 at $5.4575; September Down $.02 at $5.5425. Deliveries, 18 SRW; 89 HRW. The funds bought 2 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: Over the next two weeks, temperatures for corn pollination generally remain ideally cool with maximums ranging from 75-80 degrees and minimums of 55-60, which is around 5-10 degrees cooler than usual
· Average trade guesses for U.S. corn carryout in Friday’s USDA WASDE report: 13/14, 1.233Bbu; 14/15, 1.807Bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports to average 36mbu per week short-term, plus or minus 4 million on either side
· Ethanol margins: $0.72 per gallon vs. $0.76 last week but well above minus $0.26 in 2013. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Average trade guesses for U.S. soybean carryout in Friday’s USDA WASDE report: 13/14, 128mbu; 14/15, 417mbu
· ATI Research: Look for U.S. soybean exports to average 1-3mbu per week over the next month
· Average trade guess for U.S. all wheat carryout in Friday’s USDA WASDE report: 14/15, 590mbu
· Average trade guess for U.S. all wheat production in Friday’s USDA Crop Production report: 1.964Bbu
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly lower: QCLQ14, $.00 at $103.40; QRBQ, -$0.0137; QNGQ, -$.021; and QHOQ, -$.0016
· Firmer trend noted Tuesday in cash ethanol markets: Chicago up 3 ½; Gulf gained 2 ½; Tampa was a penny higher; Dallas added 2; New York jumped 4 ½; and LA increased 2 to $2.35 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, -2.0 mb (-1.7); gasoline, -0.3 (+0.1); distillates, +1.3 (-0.5)
· RINs slightly weaker: 2012’s off ½ at 51 ½-54; 2013’s down ½ to 51 ½-54; and 2014’s were 1 lower at 51 ½-52 ½
· The August RBOB/August ethanol spread lost $.0561 yesterday, closing at $.8329 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
·   Choice boxed beef values gained $1.80 yesterday to a record high $249.98
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $160 to $162, but no packer bids. Cattle traded last week at mostly $158
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.04 yesterday to a record high $133.90
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.83 to $130.08. July future up $0.40 to $132.20 and are $2.12 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather