HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down 1-2: Soybeans, Up 5-8, Mixed; Wheat, 5-6 Lower
· Asia is mostly higher as Russian/Ukrainian tensions ease and diplomatic efforts are underway. The Nikkei closed up 1.6%; the Hang Seng was .55% higher and Shanghai gained .32%. Europe is likewise off to a positive start (ideas the ECB will maintain interest rates while loosening borrowing conditions)—FTSE, up .15%; DAX, +.22% and CAC 40, +.6%. U.S. futures also point to a higher opening: Dow, +19; the S&P, +1 ¾ and the Nasdaq, +2. Gold is $5.75 to the downside; energies, mixed; $ Index, lower.
· Cool fronts trigger occasional storms across C-W and SE Brazil the next 10 days; near- to above-average rainfall for Mato Grosso. S Brazil/Paraguay stay cool/dry but showers are possible Mon-Tues. Argentina remains cooler-than-normal as high pressure dominates. A round of t-storms remains probableSunday-Monday. Across the central U.S., a milder pattern unfolds across the Southern Plains where corn planting begins and HRW wheat breaks dormancy. Light rain affects parts of the C/S Plains Fri-Sat and potentially around next Wednesday. At least some rain is probable – especially in Colorado where wheat is adequately moist.
· Mar Corn Down $.0150 at $4.7375; May Down $.0250 at $4.7950. The funds sold 2 K yesterday
· Mar SB Up $.0575 at $14.2575; May Up $.0775 at $14.2825. Funds were even on SB and SBM, sold 2 K SBO
· Mar Wheat, NA; May Wheat Down $.0575 at $6.3675. The funds sold 2 K on Wednesday
· Deliveries: 225 Corn; 0 SB; 1 SBM and 213 SBO; 99 ethanol
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales Estimates: o/c corn between 24-33 versus 6.8/week needed. Milo needs to average 900 K per week
· Ukraine grain exports for March-June time frame looking to be 8.7mmt, that’s up from 4.2 million a year ago! Despite, difficulties in securing new contracts due to political uncertainty
· The EU pegged 2014-15 corn output at 69.4 million tons, up from 65.7 million in 2013 and nearly 13 percent above the 5-year average
· Trade notes 400 K barrel drop in U.S. ethanol stocks to 16.6 mb; year-on-year shortfall rises to 2.7 mb
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales Estimates: 17-28 o/c SB (need -3.4); 11-17 n/c; SBM: 75-150 versus 80 needed; SBO, 0-30, 4 needed
· Export Sales Estimates: 13/14 wheat, 9-17 mbu versus 11/week needed; 14/15 estimated at 4-7 million
· Latest budget proposal out of the White House omits biodiesel tax credits for the second year
· FAS: Arg Ag Attache maintains 54 MMT SB production estimate as February rains boost soil moisture levels
ENERGY
· Futures are mixed: QCLJ14, -$0.29 at $101.16; QRBJ, +$0.0029; QNGJ, +$.034 and QHOJ, -$.0120
· Large draw on ethanol stocks boosts most cash markets: Gulf, up 13 ½ cents; NY rises 10 ½; Dallas gains 5 ½ and Chicago, 4 cents. Tampa up a more sedate penny per gallon while LA falls 2 ¼
· RINs were higher: 2012’s rise 3, to 53-55 cents; 2013’s post a 2 cent gain, 55-56 and 2014’s move up 3 ½, 53-54
· The April RBOB/April ethanol spread snugged up $.06 per gallon, to $.6463 on Wednesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $2.64 yesterday and have gained $18.01 over the last seven trading days.
· Feedyards are asking $153 for cash cattle this week while packer bid $148. Cattle traded last week at record highs of mostly $150 up to $152
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.12 yesterday and has increased $13.79 over the last ten trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 24-cents yesterday to $103.28
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather