HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, Down ½; Soybeans, Up 1; Wheat, Steady to up ¼ 

·         The equity markets appear headed to close out 2013 like a lamb, as stock futures are essentially flat ahead of the opening.  Data releases this morning include Case-Shiller home prices; the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.  Asian markets posted last day of 2013 trading gains with the Nikkei up .69%; the Hang Seng rose .26% and the Shanghai Composite moved up nearly .9%.  Europe was mixed with both the FTSE and CAC 40 up .3%; the DAX is trading .4% lower.  Dow futures are 25 to the plus side; the S&P is 1/3^rd of a point in the red and the Nasdaq, down 2.4.  Gold is 35 cents weaker; the energies are mostly lower and the March $ Index is up .113 at 80.235

·         T-storm Weather: Multiple cool fronts break heat and trigger strong thunderstorm clusters across central / northern Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay through Friday.  Beneficial rain occurs, but southern growing areas of Argentina in / near Buenos Aires and La Pampa likely stay dry from this event. Scattered t-storms linger this weekend / next week in southern Brazil and Paraguay, but at least five days of drying unfold in Argentina, and some heat recurs.  Some thunderstorms likely follow later next week, but the main point is that areas that miss rain this week are unlikely to receive rain for the 5-7 days that follow

·         Mar Corn Down $.0050 at $4.23; May Down $.0025 at $4.3150.  The funds sold 3 K to start the holiday-shortened week

·         Jan SB Up $.0150 at $13.2975; Mar SB Up $.0050 at $13.0925.  The funds sold 3 K SB, 2 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.0025 at $6.0075; May Steady at $6.0750.  The funds sold an estimated 2 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout down 32mbu vs. last week to 1.814Bbu; 14/15 down a like amount to 2.093Bbu 

• T-storm Weather: Widespread thunderstorms and cooling forecast for Argentina corn areas this week is needed because 30-day rainfall deficits of around 3.00” are commonplace & temps have been 4 to 6 degrees above normal

·         Export Inspections; Corn, 24.9mbu (28.6 needed), China took 5.9.  Milo, 3.2 (4.0) with China in for 2.4mbu

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures positions decrease 3,410 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout down 10mbu from last week at 103mbu; 14/15 down a like amount to 343mbu

·         T-storm Weather: Drier/warmer pattern unfolds in key soybean areas of Center-West/Southeast Brazil next 7-10 days

• Export Inspections: Soybeans, 43.2mbu (17.4 needed) with China taking 18.1
• Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures positions decrease 3,481 contracts
• T-storm Weather: Only 12% of U.S. HRW wheat was too dry over the medium-term
• ATI Research: 13/14 SRW wheat carryout unchanged vs. last week to 75mbu with 14/15 pegged at 133mbu
• Export Inspections: Wheat, 13.4mbu (16.8 needed); nothing to China
• Commitment of Traders: CBT Non-Commercial long wheat futures positions increase 6,008 contracts

ENERGY

·         Energy markets—mostly lower:  QCLG14,-$0.35 to $98.94; QRBG, -$0.002; QNGG, 0$.071 and QHOG, +$.0103

·         A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday compared to Friday: Chicago and Gulf were both 11 lower; Dallas and Tampa both gained 2; New York off ½; and LA dipped 3 to $2.54 ½ per gallon

·         RINs steady to up fractionally: 2012’s gained ¼ to 31 ½-33; 2013’s steady at 32 ½-33 ½; & 2014’s up ¼ at 32 ½-34

·         The January RBOB/January ethanol spread tugged in a penny, to $.8457 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                

• ​ Choice boxed beef values gained $2.72 yesterday and have increased $3.02 over the last four trading days
• USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for LW was $134.22, up $3.74 from the week before and a new record high
• After falling $2.66 over the previous two trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 25-cents yesterday
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $1.11 yesterday to $77.39

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather