HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn,  Down ½ to 1; Soybeans, Up 1-2; Wheat, Up 5-6

·         Improved economic data from China helps Asia:  Shanghai closes up 4.7%; the Hang Seng gains 1.7% but Nikkei eases a ½% lower.  The EU is lower as traders mark time ahead of Thursday’s policy announcement from the ECB regarding bond buying efforts. Both the DAX and CAC are .25-.30% lower with the Britain’s FTSE up .7%.  The U.S. is expected to open weaker with pre-market indicators showing the DOW 49 in the red; the S&P, off 2 ¾ and the NAS, down 8.2.  Energy futures are all in positive territory; the $ Index is 1/3^rd of a point lower at 93.025 and gold is $2 shy of $1,300, up $3.70

·         T-storm Weather: No change in the South American outlook as scattered showers return to Goias and Northeast Brazil from Thursday-Friday onward.  This should bring near- to above-average moisture amounts.  For the U.S. spring and summer, the CPC precip and temp outlooks call for near average #’s for most areas with the one exception being the Western HRW area.  Recent dryness as caused much of the Central U.S. to be labeled as in an “agricultural drought”.  The medium-term dryness will necessitate further monitoring as the growing season moves into March

·         Mar Corn Down $.0050 at $3.8975; May Down $.0050 at $3.9725.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday 

·         Mar SB Up $.0150 at $9.8375; May Up $.0175 at $9.9025.  Funds sold 6 K SB; bot 2 K SBM; sold 3 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.0525 at $5.4225; May Up $.0575 at $5.4550.  The funds bought 3 K Tuesday

 

 

CORN/SORGHUM                           &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;          

·     &nb​sp;   Corn inspections of 29.5 mbu near the 30 mbu trade top end; sorghum at 9.2 more than double the Implied BOY rate

·         ATI RESEARCH:  Corn export forecast holds steady at 1.725—in need of sales to Japan and South Korea

·         ATI RESEARCH:  corn c/o declines as ethanol grind forecast rises 12 to 5.226 (USDA: 5.175);

·         Omitting 13/14 due to China difficulties, unshipped corn sales are the 3^rd highest in 25 years; suggests final could come in little changed to perhaps 50-75 higher than January forecast

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Weekly SB inspections total 55.8; trade expecting 46-59.  Recent China cancellations/low level of outstanding sales trims export forecast by 30 mbu.  As of 1/8, unshipped sales to China down 22% year to year

·         Wheat inspections only 11.4 mbu and well below the 21 per week needed to keep pace with USDA forecast

·         Export sales of U.S. SRW totals a modest 3 mbu the past month, well below the 10 year period average of 8 mbu

·         SBM exports past 4 weeks of 275 K MT/week are near a 20-year high; optimism bolstered by record unshipped total

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher:  QCLH15, +$0.24 at $46.71; QRBH, +$0.0112; QNGH, +$.165; and QHOH, +$.0114

·         Cash ethanol markets were steady/firm. Both NY and Dallas emerged from MLK day unchanged; Tampa gained a ½ cent; LA was up2 and Chicago added 3 cents to $1.35/gallon

·         RINs were steady/firm Monday : 2013’s gained ¼, 62-63; 2014’s held steady, 63-64; and 2015’s added a ½ cent, 62-64

·         The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol spread settled at a 7 ½ inverse on Tuesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               ​                        &​nbsp;   

·     ​    Choice boxed beef values lost $1.18 on Tuesday and have declined $5.57 over the last four trading days

·         Light cash cattle trading occurred yesterday at $159 to $160, down $2.50 to $3.50 from last week

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.69 on Tuesday and is $2.10 higher vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index 50-cents lower at $75.08.  February futures down $2.725 to $71.775 and $3.305 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather