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Market Trend Corn, Down 1, Soybeans, Mixed Wheat, Lower

March 5, 2014 07:05 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Down ½ to 1: Soybeans, Mixed;  Wheat, Lower

·         Asia follows through on Russian re-treat but gains are more subdued, if not mixed: the Nikkei 1.2% higher; Kospi moves up .9%; the Hang Seng slips .34% and Shanghai was .89% weaker.  Early European activity is in the red:  FTSE, -.5%; DASX, -.3% and CAC-40, also -.3%.  U.S. stock index futures lean towards a lower start:  S&P, -1; Dow, -5 and the Nasdaq, -.25, as markets mark time ahead of U.S. jobs data set for release later this week.  Gold is down $3.75 at $1,334; the energy markets are lower and the $ Index is modestly firmer, up .057 at 80.24

·         T-storm Weather: Cool fronts trigger occasional thunderstorms as they sweep across Brazil and Paraguay over the next 10 days. Near-average rainfall occurs in most areas, but a swath of above-average totals occur in and near Center-West Brazil to limit harvesting rates, while keeping second-crop corn wet.  Coolness persists for the foreseeable future across Argentina to aid filling soybeans, but a round of unneeded t-storms remains probable to affect much of the region Sunday-Monday

·         Mar Corn Down $.0075 at $4.76; May Down $.0050 at $4.8375.  The funds bought 20 K—demand coming to the US?

·         Mar SB Up $.01 at $14.19; May Down $.0050 at $14.2250.  Funds bought 7 K SB; were even on SBM and acquired 8 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat, NA; May Wheat Down $.0075 at $6.4275.  The funds bought more wheat-3rd straight day, 8 K

·         Deliveries:  284 Corn; 12 SB; 1 SBM and 225 SBO

CORN/SORGHUM

·         March 2014 corn futures traded to $4.77 ½ on Tuesday, the highest price for the contract since Sept. 17, 2013

·         ATI Research: Near-term corn exports, 35-40mbu per week; 25-27, Miss River; 5-10, PNW; and 4-5 Interior/Others

·         USDA is currently conducting surveys for Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports—both due out March 31

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         March 2014 soybean futures settled at $14.02 ¼ Tuesday, up $0.10 ¾ and the highest closing price for the contract

·         ATI Research: Near-term soybean meal exports to average 230-240 K per week, which is 25 above the 5-year average

·         CBT March 2014 wheat futures settled at $6.39 ¾ Tuesday, which is the highest closing price since Dec. 11, 2013

·         T-storm Weather: Low to moderate chance for needed rain of 0.25”–0.50”across driest HRW wheat areas March 6-7

ENERGY

·         Futures are weaker:  QCLJ14, -$0.44 at $102.91; QRBJ, -$0.0122; QNGJ, -$.007 and QHOJ, -$.0178

·         EIA Petroleum Stocks Estimates (API):  Crude, +1.0 mb (+1.2); Gasoline, -1.2 (-1.2); Distillates, -1.1 (-0.3)

·         Firmer trend noted in Cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago and Gulf advanced a penny; NY up 4 ½; Tampa climbed 8; Dallas jumped 13; and LA prices were 5 ½ higher at $3.27 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2012’s gained 1 ½ to 50-52; 2013’s up 2 to 53-54; and 2014’s we 1 ½ firmer at 49-51

·         The April RBOB/March ethanol spread lost $.024 per gallon, settling at $.7063 yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                

·&nbs​p;        Choice boxed beef values increased $2.64 yesterday and have gained $18.01 over the last seven trading days.

·         Feedyards are asking $153 for cash cattle this week, but no packer bids have been reported.  Cattle traded last week at record high prices of mostly $150 up to $152

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.54 yesterday and has increased $12.67 over the last nine trading days

·         April through August hog futures all closed up their $3 daily limit yesterday.  April settled at a new record high for the nearby contract of $111.675.  This was the third consecutive day a new record has been set

 

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