HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Down ¼; Soybeans, Down 3-4; Wheat, down 1 ¾
· Profit-taking led to mixed performance overseas. Yellen said the Fed is in no hurry to raise interest rates while painting an optimistic economic picture in her comments to Congress yesterday. In Europe yesterday, creditors approved an agreement for a 4-month extension to Greece’s bail-out program. Asian markets saw Shanghai close down .53%; the Nikkei lost .10% and the Hang Seng edged up .11%. Europe is weaker this morning with the DAX .08% lower and both the FTSE and CAC 40 off .30%+/-. Pre-market indicators have DOW futures off 4; the S&P 500 down 2 ¼ and the NAAS, off 7.30. Externals: $ Index, off .171 to 94.39; energy futures are mostly weaker and gold is $10.90 higher at $1,207.70
· T-storm Weather: A series of cool fronts trigger thunderstorms across Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the next 10-14 days, especially from Thursday-Friday forward. Upcoming rainfall likely keeps corn planting and soybean harvesting rates slower than would otherwise occur, ultimately increasing the importance of weather in April: April is much drier than March, so if the dry season were to start two or three weeks early, then filling and reproductive corn would be stressed (but this potential situation is at least four weeks away, and dependent on unknown weather)
· Mar Corn Down $.0025 at $3.7725; May Down $.0025 at $3.8525. The funds were even in Tuesday trading
· Mar SB Down $.0325 at $10.1275; May Down $.0375 at $10.15. Fund activity: bought 7 K SB; 7 K SBM and 4 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.0175 at $5.04; May Down $.0075 at $5.03. The funds bought 1 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM      
· ATI Research: Last year, U.S. corn exports over the upcoming 4-week period averaged 38 mbu per week. We expect 28-32 mbu near-term this year
· T-storm Weather: Above-average rain could affect Center-West, Northeast & Southeast Brazil next 10 days. Second-crop corn could end up being planted late to very late, encroaching on the dry-hot season that can begin in April
· Private crop consultant: Second-crop corn planting in Brazil could decline 5-10% from last year
· Ethanol margins: $0.26 per gallon vs. $0.23 a week ago and below $0.68 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Pace of U.S. soymeal shipments projected to average 276,000 MT over the next four weeks
· Private crop consultant: Rain in Brazil probably benefitting some of latest maturing soybeans but hampering harvest
· T-storm Weather: Heavy rain for wettest areas of Argentina through Thursday, likely developing pockets of flooding
· On Tuesday, Egypt bought 290,000 MT of U.S. HRW wheat, its first purchase of U.S. wheat since September
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to average 15-20 mbu per week over the next month
ENERGY
· Futures are generally lower: QCLJ15, +$0.16 at $49.47; QRBJ, -0.0022; QNGJ, -$.008; andQHOJ, -$.0034
· EIA estimates: crude, +4.7 (API: +8.9); Gasoline, -1.1 (-1.6); Distillates, -3.3 (-2.4)
· Further declines were recorded in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago eased ¾; New York down 2; Gulf off ¼; Dallas slid 1 ¾; Tampa dipped 2; and LA was 4 lower at $1.52 per gallon
· Steady to weaker RINs: 2013’s off ¾ to 69-71 ½; 2014’s unchanged at 72-73; and 2015’s down ¼ to 71 ½-72 ½
· The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread gained nearly a penny, to $.2570/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were $3.16 higher on Tuesday and are up $5.12 vs. a week ago
· April live cattle futures traded to $145.30 on Tuesday, which is the lowest price for the contract since May 6, 2014
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 16-cents lower on Tues. & is down $1.43 compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.48 to $60.88. April futures up $0.25 to $68.575 and is $7.695 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather