HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, 2-3 Higher; Wheat, Steady to 5 Lower
· Deliveries: 202 SBO; 11 Wheat
· World stock markets: profit-taking outweighs decent Chinese mfg (+10% in Nov) and retail sales (+13.7%) numbers. Nikkei and the Hang Seng both close .3% lower; Shanghai Composite nearly steady; EU markets bounce back from opening losses and move modestly higher. U.S. stock futures suggest a positive start to the day as markets becomes more resigned to eventual Fed easing: Dow, +17; S&P, +1.75 and the Nasdaq, +3.75. Outside markets: gold, up $11.50 at $1,245.70/oz; energies firmer and the $ Index is .040 lower at 80.105
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms affect southern Brazil and Paraguay through 24 hours, but the brunt of rainfall over the next week focuses to the north. Rain will eventually be needed in South Brazil and Paraguay, but heat is not currently expected and crops are currently moist. Mainly dry and increasingly warm to hot weather dominate Argentina over the next week as upper-level high pressure expands. Hottest maximums in the mid-90s to low-100s hold until early next week (Dec. 15-17), but warming is most likely to occur in advance of an eastward-moving system that triggers thunderstorms.
· Dec Corn Down $.02 at $4.2650; Mar Corn Down $.02 at $4.36. The funds start the week off buying 4 K
· Jan SB Up $.0325 at $13.475; Mar SB Up $.02 at $13.2875. The funds bought 8 K SB; 8 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Steady at $6.39; Mar Down $.0475 at $6.4575. Funds were again even in Mondaytrading
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 CST. Avg. guess for U.S. corn 13/14 carryout 1.864Bbu vs. 1.887 in November
· CONAB: 78.8 on corn (78.5-79.8 previous); SB: 90.0 versus 87.9-90.2
· ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout up 60mbu from last week to 1.911Bbu with 14/15 up 60 million to 2.190Bbu
· March 2014 corn futures ended at $4.38 on Monday—the highest closing price since November 13
· Corn export Inspections of 40.2mbu (vs. 27.3 needed) were the highest since April, 2012 with China taking 17.6. Milo was 2.9 (3.8) with China in for 554 thou bushels
· ATI Research: Weekly corn exports are forecast at 32mbu per week, against 27 of late; the 5-year average of 28.4 million and last year’s mediocre 12.5 per week showing
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 CST. Avg. guess for U.S. soybean 13/14 carryout 153mbu vs. 170 in November
· ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout is up 28mbu from last week to 113mbu with 14/15 up a like amount to 353mbu
· January 2014 soybean futures ended at $13.43 ¾ on Monday—the highest closing price sinceSeptember 18
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 60.4mbu (19.6 needed) with China taking 41.4
· USDA Supply/Demand report at 11:00 CST. Avg. guess for U.S. all wheat 13/14 carryout 547mbu vs. 565 in November
· ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat carryout is unchanged from last week at 525mbu with 14/15 stable at 685mbu
· Export Inspections: Wheat, 19.8mbu (16.8 needed); China takes 2.1
ENERGY
· Energy markets—firmer: QCLF14,+$1.15 at $98.48; QRBF, +$0.0281; QNGF, +$.022 and QHOF, +$.0319
· A mixed trend in cash ethanol markets continued on Monday: Chicago down 5; Gulf off 2 ½; Dallas unchanged; Tampa gained 1 ½; New York was unchanged; while LA was 2 ½ higher at $2.59 per gallon
· RINs were weaker: 2012’s down 1 ½ to 34-35; 2013’s off 1 ½ to 35-36; & 2014’s were 1 ¾ lower at 35 ½-36 ½
· The January RBOB/January ethanol spread tightened up $.074 cents to $.6599 on record low East Coast supplies
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· After falling $1.83 over the previous two trading days, Choice boxed beef values increased $1.05 yesterday
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $131.86, down $0.80 from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 3-cents yesterday and has gained $1.18 over the last three trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.96 yesterday to $76.76
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather