HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.0325; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.06; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0575; KWZ: Up $.0675
· A weak factory PMI number from China pressured Asia overnight. The Caixin/Markit mfg index fell to 47.0 this month, a 6-year low and suggesting output, export demand and employment are all weakening. Shanghai was off 2.2%; the Nikkei, down 2.0% and the Hang Seng, 2.3% lower. Europe is slightly higher at mid-day despite some luke-warm data releases: DAX, +.6%; CAC 40, +.7% and FTSE, +1.3%. U.S. pre-market indices all look positive: DOW futures, +34; NAS, +11.5 & S&P, +3.75. Outside markets: Nov WTI, +$.22/bl; gold, +$.20 at $1,125.10 and the $ Index, +.009 at 96.455
· T-storm Weather: Temperatures average much warmer than normal across the central U.S. the next two weeks, likely causing September to rank among the warmest in 121 years of record. Areas of rain occur in the Plains & northwest Corn Belt through Thursday as the remnant of Tropical Depression 16-E passes, slowing corn / soybean harvest but improving soil moisture in parts of the HRW wheat belt. Additional rain potentially follows around Sunday-Monday in the northern Plains, but otherwise dry weather occurs to aid corn / soybean harvest, while leaving some HRW & SRW wheat areas drier than ideal as planting continues
· Dec Corn Up $.0325 at $3.8375; Mar, Up $.0325 at $3.9550. Tuesday had the funds selling 3 K
· Nov SB Up $.06 at $8.6775; Jan Up $.0675 at $8.7325. Fund activity: sold 6 K SB, 5 K SBM and 3 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.06 at $5.0150; Mar Up $.06 at $5.0875. The funds were even yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM        
·   ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports are forecast to average 28-32 mbu per week versus 28.6 per week last year and versus the 5-year average of 29 per week
· U.S. corn harvest for the week ending Sept. 27 was approx. 11% last year and the five-year average is approx. 23%
· Crop consultant: Price ratio in Brazil favors soybeans over full-season corn
· Ethanol margins: $0.15 per gallon--up vs. $0.08 last week but below $0.64 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
· T-storm Weather: Rain (0.50”-1.50”) occurs into Thur. from northwest KS into west-central MN, slowing corn harvest
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Weekly U.S. soybean exports are expected to reach the 25-30 mbu pace within 3-4 weeks
· U.S. soybean harvest for the week ending Sept. 27 was approx. 9% last year and the five-year average is approx. 16%
· Crop consultant: Drier forecast for Central Brazil slows early soybean planting
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports forecast to continue to average 20-25 mbu per week short-term
· T-storm Weather: Only 32% of U.S. HRW wheat is projected to receive more than 0.50” of rain this week
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLX15, +$0.22, $46.58; EBX,+$0.18; EBX-CLX, $2.72, $.00; RBX, -$.0066; NGX, -$.007; HOX, +$.0022
· EIA estimates: crude, -0.1 (API: -3.7); Gasoline, +1.0 (+2.2); Distillates, +1.4 (+0.04)
· A mostly higher tone was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago up 1 ¼; New York added 2; Gulf, Tampa and Dallas climbed ½; but LA was 2 ½ lower at $1.69 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were higher: 2013’s gained 7/8 to 33-34; 2014’s up 1 to 33 ½-35; & 2015’s added 7/8 to 33-34
· The Oct RBOB/Oct Ethanol inverse narrowed $.0183 to - $.1456/gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values declined $2.77 Tuesday, and at $222.77 are down $10.72 vs. a week ago & lowest for 2015
· October 2015 live cattle futures established a new life-of-contract low of $135.275 on Tuesday
· On Tuesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 29-cents lower, and at $82.47 is down 86-cents vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.16 higher at $71.43. October futures down $0.625 at $71.00 and $0.43 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather