HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.0275; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.03; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.05; KWZ: Up $.035
· A slightly firmer tone is generally being noted in world stock. China’s factory output and investment demand weakened in October and retail sales growth edged up, suggesting economic growth has stabilized. Japan’s Nikkei was 0.1% higher, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng eased 0.2% and the Shanghai Composite Index was 0.3 higher. In Europe, the FTSE 100 is trading 0.5% to the upside and the DAX is firmer by 1.1%. Pre-opening trends in the U.S. are higher: DOW, +37; NAS, +9; S&P, +4. Outside markets: the $ Index is down .120 @ 99.27; gold is up $0.17 at $1,088.37; and Dec crude is $.52 lower @ $43.69/bl
· T-storm Weather: Hot & mainly dry upper-level high pressure dominates Center-West Brazil into early next week, while areas of rain occur in all growing areas of South America. Areas of rain continue in varying areas of South America next week, & gradually include drying areas of Center-West Brazil (& drought-stricken Bahia). In the U.S., an intense system moves across the central region through tonight, generating a large area of very strong winds, as well as areas of rain, snow, & severe thunderstorms
· Dec Corn Up $.0275 at $3.6175; Mar Up $.0225 at $3.7025.
· Nov SB Up $.03 at $8.675; Jan Up $.0375 at $8.5925.
· Dec Wheat Up $.05 at $4.9575; Mar Up $.0375 at $4.99255
CORN/SORGHUM         ;
· December 2015 corn futures made a contract low of $3.56 Tuesday and settled at $3.59. This is down $0.2325 (6.1%) since the 2015 crop insurance harvest price was set on Oct. 30
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports through November est. at 18-19 mbu per week--significantly below 38 mbu last year
· Crop consultant: Delay in soybean planting in northern Brazil has raised concern about double-crop (safrinha) corn
· T-storm Weather: Most corn areas of Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay were wetter than normal over the last two weeks
· Ethanol margins: $0.23 per gallon--down vs. $0.27 last week and below $0.98 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Since making a high of $9.235 on Oct. 14, January 2016 soybean futures have declined $0.68 (7.4%)
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean exports are forecast to range from 90-94 mbu per week short-term, which is slightly below the year ago level
· Crop consultant: There is some concern about the uneven start to the soybean growing season in Brazil
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports forecast at 10-15 mbu per week from mid-November to mid-December
· T-storm Weather: A severe thunderstorm and/or tornado outbreak occurs today in/near Arkansas, Illinois and Missouri, but heavy rain is not expected for SRW wheat areas. Amounts of 0.33”-0.67” appear probable
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ15, -$0.52, $43.69; EBZ,-$0.20; EBZ-CLZ, $3.54, +$.31; RBZ, -$.0049; NGZ, -$.017; HOZ, -$.0066
· Additional declines were noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago slid 1 ¾; New York down 2; Gulf declined 4; Tampa eased 1 ½; Dallas lost 1; and LA was 2 lower at $1.61 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs steady to higher: 2014’s added 3/8 to 42 ½ -42 ¾; 2015’s unch at 41 ½-42; & 2016’s up ¼ to 42 ¼-42 ¾
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse is trading at -$.1225 per gallon on Wednesday morning (+.0247 vs. Tuesday)
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values increased 12-cents on Tuesday but are still $1.83 lower vs. last week
· December live cattle futures made a contract low of $127.425 Tuesday & has declined $15.275 (10.8%) since Oct. 28
· On Tuesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 69-cents lower and is down $2.04 compared to a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index $1.38 lower at $61.17. December futures off $0.175 and are $7.62 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com