HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.02; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.0450; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0275; KWZ: Up $.0250
· Fed minutes suggest inflation concerns are several months away; expresses worry over the slow rate of global growth. Ergo, no interest rate boost for the forseeable future. Asia rejoices: Nikkie closes up 1.64%; Shanghai gains 1.28% and the Hang Seng, up .46%. Europe enjoying the moment as well: CAC 40, +1.2%; FTSE, +1.2%; DAX, +1.5%. U.S. futures are mixed: DOW, +15; S&P 500, +1; NAS, -1/4. Glencore stock up 7+% in Europe. Externals: gold, +$9.60; $ Index, -.497 @ 94.91; Nov WTI, +$1.25 @ $50.68
· T-storm Weather: U.S. temperatures vary as cool fronts pass, but average above- to much-above-normal over the next 10 to 14 days as maximums often reach the 70s-80s. Little to no rain occurs in most areas through the period, allowing corn / soybean harvesting and winter wheat planting to race forward. In South America, a series of cool fronts produce very heavy rain across South Brazil over the next 10 days; 3.00" to 6.00" occurs with locally higher amounts in Rio Grande do Sul, likely producing areas of field flooding in southern corn, soybean, and wheat areas
· Dec Corn Up $.02 at $3.9325; Mar Up $.02 at $4.0375. The funds sold 5 K on Thursday
· Nov SB Up $.0450 at $8.8575; Jan Up $.0425 at $8.9050. Fund activity: sold 5 K SB, 3 K SBO & 3 K SBM
· Dec Wheat Up $.0275 at $5.1425; Mar Up $.0250 at $5.2150. The funds sold 4 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade est 2015 U.S. corn crop: 13.482 bbu (range 13.252-13.798) & 13.585 in Sept.
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--15/16, 1.498 bbu (range 1.130-1.730) & 1.592 in Sept.
· ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. export sales of corn of 309 mbu are 31%/133 million fewer than this time last year and are 35%/169 million less than the 5-year average. Sept-Nov export forecast is 350 mbu vs. 408 a year ago
· Through Oct. 8, the 2015 crop insurance harvest price for December 2015 corn futures has averaged $3.9279
· U.S. corn mature for the week ending Oct. 11 was approx. 86% last year and the five-year average is approx. 91%
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade est 2015 U.S. soybean crop: 3.911 bbu (range 3.830-3.975) and 3.935 in Sept.
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--15/16, 0.398 bbu (0.125-0.511), 0.450 in Sept.
· ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. export sales of soybeans of 720 mbu are 29%/287 million fewer than this time last year and are 11%/87 million less than the 5-year average. Sept-Nov export forecast is 700 mbu vs. 824 a year ago
· Through Oct. 8, the 2015 crop insurance harvest price for November 2015 soybean futures has averaged $8.8267
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade est U.S. wheat carryout--15/16, 0.821 (range of 0.765-0.896) & 0.875 in Sept.
· ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales the past 4 weeks of 38 mbu are lowest for this time of year since at least 1985
ENERGY
· Firm: CLX15, +$1.37, $50.79; EBX,+$0.88; EBX-CLX, $3.13, -$.49; RBX, +$.0275; NGX, +$.010; HOX, +$.0338
· Cash ethanol markets posted declines on Thursday: Chicago eased 2 ¾; New York, Gulf and Dallas down 2; Tampa eased 1 ½; and LA was 2 ½ lower at $1.71 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weakened: 2013’s gained ½ to 33 ¾-34 ¼; 2014’s up ¼ to 34-35; & 2015’s firmed ½ to 33 ¾-34 ¼
· The Nov RBOB/Nov Ethanol inverse gave up $.0358 Thursday, settling at -$.1492/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values firmed 3-cents on Thursday, but at $203.61 are still $3.94 lower vs. the prior week
· Dressed steer weight for week end Sept. 26: 920 lbs, dn 3 pounds v. last week, 915.5 for 4-week avg. & 893 last year
· On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased $1.77, and at $88.27 is the highest since Aug. 18
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.46 higher at $74.75. October futures up $0.175 at $74.00 but is $0.75 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather