HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.0125; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.0650; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.03; KWZ: Up $.0325
· Yellen says the Fed will likely begin raising rates at the end of the year with global economic weakness not sufficiently severe to deter the decision. Asia closes mostly higher: Nikkei, +1.8%; Hang Seng, +.43%; Shanghai, -1.6%. Europe interprets Yellen’s remarks as constructive, opens strong with the CAC up 3.4%; the DAX is 2.8% higher and the FTSE, +2.6%. Revised QII GDP out this am, 3.7% expected along with consumer sentiment at 10. Futures are positive: DOW, +225; S&F, +23.5; NAS, +47. Outside markets: $ Index, +.371 @ 96.525; gold, -$9.80 @ $1,142.20; Nov crude, +.$.29
· T-storm Weather: A somewhat classic El Nino pattern continues over the next two weeks as polar air remains far north of the central U.S., and areas of rain and thunderstorms focus on varying areas of the southern and southeastern U.S. Although this pattern is conducive to rain in SRW wheat areas of the eastern U.S., more would be ideal for planting and growth because the coverage of subsoil dryness is the highest in at least four years for SRW wheat. The coverage of subsoil dryness for HRW wheat is also elevated, but similar to late-September and early-October of 2011 and 2012.
· Dec Corn Up $.0125 at $3.8275; Mar, Up $.0125 at $3.94. Fund selling totaled 5 K on Thursday
· Nov SB Up $.0650 at $8.7450; Jan Up $.0625 at $8.7875. Fund activity: bought 2 K SB, sold 2 K SBM and bought 4 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.03 at $5.0025; Mar Up $.0225 at $5.0650. The funds sold 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM ;      
· ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. export sales of corn of 311 mbu are 31%/139 million fewer than this time last year and are 35%/165 million less than the 5-year average. Sept-Nov export forecast is 350 mbu vs. 408 a year ago
· T-storm Weather: Mainly dry weather is forecast for U.S. corn production until Tuesday-Wednesday when a few thunderstorms affect the northern Plains through the Corn Belt; most areas receive less to much-less than 0.33”
· December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.81 ½ on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled at $3.26
· U.S. corn mature for the week ending Sept. 27 was approx. 57% last year and the five-year average is approx. 72%
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. export sales of soybeans of 645 mbu are 36%/360 million fewer than this time last year and are 18%/143 million less than the 5-year average. Sept-Nov export forecast is 675 mbu vs. 824 a year ago
· U.S. soybean harvest for the week ending Sept. 27 was approx. 9% last year and the five-year average is approx. 16%
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat year-to-date export sales: 112 mbu, down 23% vs. last year & 47% below 5-year avg.
· T-storm Weather: Any rain next week in central U.S. wheat areas is expected to be scattered and likely limited to the passage of a cool front around Tuesday
ENERGY
· Mostly Higher: CLX15, +$0.29, $45.20; EBX,+$0.11; EBX-CLX, $2.98, -$29; RBX, +$.0028;NGX, -$.018; HOX, +$.0010
· A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago slid 3 3/8; New York down 4; Gulf eased 1; Tampa declined 3 ½; Dallas off 1 ½; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.68 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2013’s added ¾ to 34 ½-35 ¼; 2014’s firmed ½ to 35-36; & 2015’s climbed ¾ to 34 ½-35 ¼
· The Oct RBOB/Oct Ethanol inverse snugged in $.0186 to -$.1348/gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   </strong>
· Choice boxed beef values declined $3.04 on Thursday,, and at $214.85 are down $15.65 vs. a week ago
· Quarterly Hogs and Pigs at 2:00 pm CDT: Avg. trade est, all hogs & pigs, 103.6%; breeding, 100.3%, market, 103.9%
· On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 5-cents, & at $81.86 is 2-cents higher than the prior week
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.09 higher at $71.83. October futures up $1.10 at $71.65 and $0.18 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather