HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Down $.0050; SOYBEANS: SX, Down $.0350; WHEAT: WZ, Down $.0050; KWZ: Up $.01
· Post-December Fed rate hike increasingly likely? More stimulus efforts from the BOJ? Reserve Bank of Australia leaves rates unchanged, as expected. Pac Rim/U.S. trade agreement beneficial longer-term? Asia: Nikkie, +1%; Shanghai, +.5%; Hang Seng, -.1%. Europe: FTSE, -.1%; DAX, +.5%; CAC 40, +.44%. U.S. Pre-markets: DOW futures, -32; S&P 500, -3.75; NAS, -11. Externals: $ Index .155 lower at 96.085; gold, -$.30 to $1,137.40 and Oct WTI, down $.10-$.11/barrel
· T-storm Weather: Significant issues are not immediately foreseen for U.S. corn and soybean harvesting, or winter wheat planting. Despite cool fronts that pass from time to time, mild upper-level high pressure generally dominates to turn the central U.S. warmer than normal through mid-month. A few showers and thunderstorms form in the Corn Belt when a cool front passes Wednesday-Thursday, but most areas only receive 0.20" to 0.40" amounts. Better rain chances exist in Texas Thursday-Friday when a larger upper-level system passes, but a lack of humidity may prevent heavy rainfall from occurring
· Dec Corn Down $.0050 at $3.93; Mar Down $.0050 at $4.0325. The funds bought 5 K to begin the week
· Nov SB Down $.0350 at $8.8075; Jan Down $.0325 at $8.85. Fund activity: bought 5 K SB, 3 K SBM and 5 K SBO yesterday
· Dec Wheat Down $.0050 at $5.15; Mar Down $.0075 at $5.2075. The funds bought 2 KMonday
CORN/SORGHUM         ; ;
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout down 103 mbu to 1.558 bbu--carryin, -22; production, -81
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 66 mbu & crop estimate steady at 569 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress—G/E crop ratings unch at 68%; ATI crop est down 81 mbu to 13.407 bbu due to lower harv acres
· USDA Crop Progress, corn mature: 86% vs. last year’s 75% and the 5-year avg. of 83%; corn harvest at 27% vs. 16% last year and 32% for the 5-year avg; sorghum harvest at 43% vs. 36% in 2014 and the 37% average
· T-storm Weather: Few showers cannot be ruled out beyond Oct. 11 for Midwest, but below-normal amounts occur
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout down 11 mbu to 459—carrryin -8; crop, +17; crush, +20. Good/Excellent crop ratings up 2 points, which helps boost ATI crop estimated by 17 mbu to 3.933 bbu
· USDA Crop Progress, soybeans dropping leaves: 85% vs. 81% last year and the 5-year average of 83%; soybean harvest at 42%, which is more than double last year’s 19% and well above the 5-year average of 32%
· USDA Crop Progress, winter wheat planting: 49% vs. 54% last year and the 5-year average of 51%
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout at 157 mbu vs. 153 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Mostly Higher: CLX15, -$0.10, $46.15; EBX,+$0.09; EBX-CLX, $3.20, +$.21; RBX, +$.0040;NGX, +$.018; HOX, +$.0009
· A mostly firmer trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago gained 2 1/8; New York climbed 2 ¾; Gulf eased 1 ½; Tampa up 1; Dallas added 1 ½; and LA was 2 ½ higher at $1.75 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs lower: 2013’s off ½ to 33 ¾-34 ¼; 2014’s down 3/8 to 34 ¼-35 ¼; & 2015’s eased ½ to 33 ¾-34 ¼
· The Nov RBOB/Oct Ethanol inverse retreated 3 ¼ cents yesterday to -$.1972/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values declined another $1.80 on Monday, & at $203.97 are the lowest of calendar year 2015
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $10.09 last week to $117.71/cwt & is $42.83 lower vs. a year ago
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $2.16, and at $86.42 is $2.18 higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.32 to $73.38. October futures down $0.35 at $73.00 and $0.38 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather