HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.0050; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.02; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0225; KWZ: Up $.02
· September is finally coming to a close and appears to be doing so on a positive note. The Nikkei closed up 2.7% on hopes for more Central Bank stimulus efforts; this helped Shanghai and the Hang Seng post gains of .5% and 1.4%. Early trade in Europe finds the FTSE +2.2%; DAX, +2.5% and the CAC 40, +2.7% with notable gains coming from the auto sector as well as Glencore. U.S. pre-markets look beneficial to 401-Ks: DOW futures, +197; the NAS, +57.5 & the S&P, +24.25. One pundit has an interesting take on the Fed—too much volatility to raise rates now. $ Index, +.24; gold, -$4.80 and Nov WTI, down $.18 per barrel
· T-storm Weather: A notably cooler pattern is beginning and continues for one week as a long feed of northeast winds cool the central U.S., leading to some light frost from time to time. The setup is conducive to heavy rain in SRW wheat areas of the east coast over the next few days (as well as parts of the eastern Corn Belt), and key HRW wheat areas of the Plains Friday-Saturday. The atmospheric setup next week is a bit unclear, but a warmer pattern remains most probable with best rain chances in the southern U.S.
· Dec Corn Up $.0050 at $3.8950; Mar Up $.0075 at $4.0050. The funds bought 1 K on Tuesday
· Nov SB Up $.02 at $8.8625; Jan Up $.02 at $8.8950 Fund activity: bought 3 K SB, 1 K SBM and 3 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.0225 at $5.06; Mar Up $.02 at $5.1325. The funds sold 1 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM        
·   USDA Grain Stocks report at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sep. 1 corn stocks, 1.739 bbu (range 1.647-1.850)
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports are forecast to average 27-29 mbu per week, while shipments of sorghum are pegged at 6-8 per week against 8.0 last year
· U.S. corn harvest for the week ending Oct. 4 was approx. 16% last year and the five-year average is approx. 32%
· Ethanol margins: $0.13 per gallon--down vs. $0.15 last week and below $0.58 last year. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
· T-storm Weather: Sept. has chance to be warmer than Aug. for first time in 121 years of record across U.S. Corn Belt
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA Grain Stocks at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sep. 1 soybean stocks, 0.205 bbu (range 0.165-0.250)
· ATI Research: Weekly U.S. soybean exports are expected to reach the 30-35 mbu pace within 3-4 weeks
· USDA Small Grains Summary report at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. guess for U.S. all wheat crop, 2.133 bbu (v. 2.136 in Aug.)
· USDA Grain Stocks report at 11:00 am CDT: Avg. guess for U.S. Sep. 1 wheat stocks, 2.149 bbu (range 1.987-2.285)
· ATI Research: Weekly U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to average 20-25 mbu short-term
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLX15, -$0.18, $45.05; EBX,-$0.14; EBX-CLX, $3.02, +$.02; RBX, -$.0078; NGX, +$.018; HOX, -$.0025
· EIA estimates: crude, +0.3 (API: +4.6); Gasoline, +0.2 (+3.3); Distillates, -0.8 (+0.2)
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Tuesday: Chicago eased 2 ¾; New York off ¾; Gulf slid 3; Tampa up ¼; Dallas down ½; and LA was a penny lower at $1.68 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs mixed: 2013’s off 1/8 to 35 ¼-35 ½; 2014’s down ½ to 36-36 ½; & 2015’s eased 1/8 to 35 ¼-35 ½
· The Oct RBOB/Oct Ethanol inverse lost $.0264 yesterday, closing at -$.1588/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were $1.63 lower on Tuesday, and at $209.31 are the lowest for calendar year 2014
· October live cattle futures closed at $129.175 Tue.—lowest settlement price for a nearby contract since Oct. 17, 2013
· On Tuesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 44-cents, & at $84.68 is $2.21 higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.15 at $72.01. October futures gained $1.825 to $73.25 and $1.24 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather