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MARKET TREND CORN CZ, Up 1, SOYBEANS SX, Down 2,

September 18, 2015 07:14 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCZ, Up $.01; SOYBEANS: SX, Down $.0225;  WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0225;  KWZ: Up $.0150   

·         Hold the line prevailed with the Fed yesterday as decision-makers opted not to boost interest rates for the time being.  Asia closed mixed:  the Nikkei fell nearly 2% while the Hang Seng and Shanghia gained .3% and .4%.  Europe responded in a decidedly negative manner:  FTSE, -1%; CAC, -2.4%; DAX, -2.4% as well.  The DOW lost 100 points after yesterday’s decision and the trend is  expected to continue:  DOW futures, -111; S&P, -13; NAS, -32.  $ Index, -.347; gold, +$19.3; crude, down $.50/barrel

·         T-storm Weather: A cool front passes through today to temporarily break unseasonable warmth, but a milder pattern quickly resumes next week as the central U.S. averages warmer than normal the next two weeks.  The cool front triggers thunderstorms from the southern Plains through the central Corn Belt through tonight to slow some corn / soybean harvesting and HRW wheat planting, though topsoil moisture improves in parts of Plains.  Another round of significant rain is not expected to immediately follow as drying resumes / continues, except for a low chance within the northwest third of the Corn Belt around Wednesday

·         Dec Corn Up $.01 at $3.8075;  Mar, Up $.0125 at $3.9225.  The funds sold 6 K on Thursday

·         Nov SB Down $.0225 at $8.8225; Jan Down $.0225 at $8.8650.   Funds: sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBMK SBO

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0225 at $4.8375; Mar Up $.0225 at $4.9075.   The funds sold 4 K yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM                          &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;            

·   ​      T-storm Weather: Scattered rainfall of 0.50” to 1.50” occurs through Saturday and slows U.S. corn harvest through the central Corn Belt, with highest coverage and amounts from Iowa and points east-northeast

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.79 ¾ on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled at $3.38 ¼

·         ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. export sales of corn of 325 mbu are 29%/132 million fewer than this time last year and are 33%/160 million less than the 5-year average.  Sept-Nov export forecast is 350 mbu vs. 408 a year ago

·         U.S. corn harvest for the week ending Sept. 20 was approx. 7% last year and the five-year average is approx. 15%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. export sales of soybeans of 609 mbu are 34%/316 million fewer than this time last year and are 18%/135 million less than the 5-year average. Sept-Nov export forecast is 675 mbu vs. 824 a year ago

·         T-storm Weather: In Brazil, unusual to exceptional rainfall of 3.00”-6.00” affected areas in/adjacent Mato Grosso do Sul & Sao Paulo thus far in September--sharply wetter than normal.  Soil moisture is ample for early soybean planting

·         CBT December wheat futures closed at $4.81 ½ Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 wheat settled at $4.88 ½

·         ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat year-to-date export sales: 73 mbu, down 16% vs. last year & 23% below the 5-year avg.

·         T-storm Weather: Total of 48% of U.S. HRW wheat production was drier than normal over the last 30 days  

ENERGY

·         Mixed: CLV15, -0.50, $46.40;  EBX,+$0.07; EBX-CLX, $2.40, +$0.52; RBV, +$.0089; NGV, +$.006; HOV, -$.0002

·         A mixed trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago up ½; New York down ¾; Gulf added 1 ½; Dallas and Tampa firmed 1; and LA gained a penny to $1.66 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were higher: 2013’s added 1 at 31 ½-32 ½; 2014’s gained ¾ at 32 ¼-33 ¼; & 2015’s up 1 to 31 ½-32 ½

·         The Oct RBOB/Sep Ethanol inverse increased $.0081 to -$.1460

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &nbs​p;                                        

·         Choice boxed beef values slid $2.91 on Thursday to $230.50—the lowest level for calendar year 2015

·         Dressed steer weight for week end Sept. 5: 914 lbs, up 8 pounds v. last week, 901.5 for 4-week avg. & 889 last year

·         On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined $1.07 and is $1.82 lower vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.01 at $70.97.  October futures up $2.325 at $70.575 and $0.395 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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