HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.0125; SOYBEANS: SF, Up $.03; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.005; KWZ: Up $.0075
· A mixed tone is evident in global stocks at mid-week. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.3%, Seoul’s Kospi was steady but the Shanghai Composite eased 1.0%. Stocks in Europe are weaker with Britain’s FTSE 100 off 0.2% and Germany’s DAX down 0.5%. In the U.S., markets are sowing some modest strength prior to the open: DOW, +13; NAS, +3; S&P, +1. Outside markets: the $ Index is .100 lower at 99.60; gold is $1.44 higher at $1,070.14; and Dec crude is up $.60 @ $41.27/bl
· T-storm Weather: A stormy period continues for at least the next 10 days across Brazil and Paraguay as a series of cool fronts sweep northward and trigger thunderstorms; widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall occurs with the potential for excessive rainfall from South into Southeast Brazil (and adjacent areas of Paraguay). It will not rain at all times, but thunderstorms occur each day with breaks likely limited to two days (most notably aroundFriday-Saturday across South Brazil)
· Dec Corn Up $.0125 at $3.6325; Mar Up $.0125 at $3.6925. Funds bought 2 K on Tuesday
· Jan SB Up $.03 at $8.67; Mar Up $.0275 at $8.6775. Funds bought 3 K SB; were even SBM; & bought 1 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.005 at $4.88; Mar Up $.005 at $4.875. The funds sold 2 K in Tuesday’strade
CORN/SORGHUM        
· ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 corn reported under loan as of Nov. 16 was 186.8 mbu. This is up 83.5 mbu (77%) from the 105.3 mbu of 2014/15 corn reported under loan at this time last year
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports through Nov. 12 were 233 mbu—down 75 million (24%) from last year. This year is on pace to be the slowest for the September-November quarter since 2012 when total shipments were 221 mbu
· T-storm Weather: In Argentina, 0.50”-1.50” of rain occurs through Thurs. to keep vegetative corn moist to locally wet
· Ethanol margins: $0.23 per gallon--unchanged vs. last week but below $1.30 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. 2015/16 soybeans reported under loan as of Nov. 16 was 50.4 mbu. This is more than double the 27.3 mbu of 2014/15 soybeans reported under loan at this time last year
· T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms will continue through Thursday in Argentina, but rainfall will be limited over Friday-Monday in response to passage of strong cool front, limiting concerns over excessive rain & slowed soybean planting
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports projected to continue to range from 10/-15 mbu per week into early December
· Crop consultant: Wheat yields in parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil down 50% v. early estimates due to heavy rain
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ15, +$0.60, $41.27; EBF, +$0.85; EBF-CLF, $2.05, +$.19; RBZ, +$.0257; NGZ, +$.026; HOZ, +$.0258
· EIA estimates: crude, +2.0 (API: -0.5); Gasoline, -0.9 (+0.2); Distillates, -0.2 (-1.5)
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Tuesday: Chicago eased 1; New York down ½; Gulf slid 2 ¼; Tampa declined 2; Dallas firmed ¼; and LA was 1 ¼ lower at $1.58 ¼ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s gained 1 to 43 ½ -44 ½; 2015’s added 1 to 43-44; & 2016’s firmed 1 to 43 ½-44 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse is trading at -$.1963 per gallon on Wednesday morning (+.0287 vs. Tuesday)
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were 67-cents lower on Tuesday and are down $8.20 vs. a week ago
· U.S. daily cattle slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 107,000 head vs. 112,000 last week and 113,000 a year ago
· On Tuesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $2.31 lower and has declined $17.11 (19.2%) since Oct. 16
· CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.49 at $56.49. December futures gained $2.375 but are still $2.315 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com