HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.0125; SOYBEANS: SF, Up $.0075; WHEAT: WZ, Down $.0275; KWZ: Down $.0125
· Global stocks are firmer as market worries prompted by Friday’s terror attacks in Paris continue to subside. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up a like amount while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.1% lower. In Europe, stocks are also showing strength at midday with both Britain’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX climbing 1.9%. Pre-opening trends in the U.S. are also to the upside: DOW, +78; NAS, +18; S&P, +7. Outside markets: the $ Index is up .072 at 99.61; gold is down $5.00 at $1,078.70; and Dec crude is $.47 lower @ $41.27/bl
· T-storm Weather: A major system develops widespread rain across most of the central U.S. next several days, likely leading to some flooding from SRW wheat areas of the Delta into Illinois and Missouri. Cattle from northeast Colorado into Nebraska may experience stress today as wind-driven rain transitions to wind-driven snow or rain-snow. A notably colder pattern follows in all areas as the system dislodges Arctic air for the first time this autumn--first sustained period of below-normal temps since August
· Dec Corn Up $.0125 at $3.6125; Mar Up $.01 at $3.6775. Funds bought 2 K on Monday
· Jan SB Up $.0075 at $8.6025; Mar Up $.0075 at $8.615. Funds bought 1 K SB; sold 1 K SBM; & bought 2 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Down $.0275 at $4.915; Mar Down $.03 at $4.925. The funds sold 2 K inMonday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM          
·   ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout up 103 million bushels to 1.808 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout up 27 million bushels to 52
· USDA Crop Progress—corn harvest at 96% vs. 88% last year and 94% for the 5-year avg; sorghum harvest at 91% vs. 82% in 2014 and the 89% average
· Private consultant notes that the worst case scenario for 15/16 Brazil corn production would be a combination of late corn planting and an early end to the rainy season
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout is 64 million bushels higher at 465 mbu
· Private consultant notes the concern with respect to Brazil soybean production is the drier than normal weather that has persisted thus far in central and northeastern areas
· T-storm Weather: Storm systems and cool fronts parade across Brazil and Paraguay over the next 10 days, producing widespread coverage of near- and above-normal rainfall of at least 2.25" to 4.50"; wettest South/Southeast Brazil
· USDA Crop Progress, winter wheat emergence: 87% vs. 80% last week, 86% last year and the 5-year average of 86%
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout at 153 mbu vs. 154 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ15, +$0.47, $41.27; EBF, -$0.33; EBF-CLF, $1.90, +$.12; RBZ, -$.0058; NGZ, -$.076; HOZ, +$.0026
· A slightly weaker tone was noted in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 1/8; New York off 2 ¼; Gulf eased ½; Tampa slipped 2 ½; Dallas declined 1 ½; and LA was 1 lower at $1.59 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmer: 2014’s up ½ to 42 ½ -43 ½; 2015’s gained 5/8 to 42-43; & 2016’s added ½ to 42 ½-43 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse is trading at -$.2302 per gallon on Tuesday morning (-.0168 vs. Monday)
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values declined 26-cents on Monday and are $7.41 lower compared to a last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $3.37 last week to $127.04/cwt and is $42.86 lower vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained $1.18 but is still $1.61 lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.95 lower at $56.98. December futures down $3.00 and are $5.18 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com