MARKET TREND CORN CZ, Up 1, SOYBEANS SF, Down 3,
November 19, 2015 07:12 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Up $.01; SOYBEANS: SF, Down $.0325; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0025; KWZ: Up $.005
· Additional gains were noted in global stocks overnight with strength in U.S. markets linked to further signs the Federal Reserve could be on track to raise interest rates in December. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei 225 increased 1.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 1.4%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 firmed 2.1% and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.4%. Gains are also being seen at midday in Europe: Britain’s FTSE 100, +1.3% and Germany’s DAX 1.6% higher. U.S.: DOW, +45; NAS, +16; S&P, +7. Outside markets: the $ Index is down .525 at 99.22; gold is up $4.87 at $1,073.67; and Dec crude is $.10 lower @ $40.65/bl
· T-storm Weather: A series of cool fronts trigger thunderstorms on varying days in varying areas of Brazil/Paraguay through next week, resulting in widespread coverage of near/above-normal rain. Highest coverage/amounts focus on South Brazil/Paraguay, potentially inducing excessive wetness due to repeated thunderstorms that may lead to more than 6.00". In Argentina, near-normal rain of 1.00"-1.50" occurs the next 10 days with highest totals in sunflower & wheat areas of Buenos Aires & La Pampa
· Dec Corn Up $.01 at $3.6275; Mar Up $.005 at $3.6875. Funds were even on Wednesday
· Jan SB Down $.0325 at $8.545; Mar Down $.0375 at $8.57. Funds sold 4 K SB; sold 2 K SBM; and were even SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.0025 at $4.835; Mar Up $.0025 at $4.8525. The funds sold 1 K inWednesday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 20-28 mbu for 15/16 corn
· ATI Research: From Oct. 6 to Nov. 18 this year, December 2015 corn futures have declined $0.365 (-9.2%). One year ago, the December 2014 corn contract over the same time period (i.e. Oct. 6 to Nov. 18) increased $0.395 (+11.9%)
· T-storm Weather: Several days of unseasonably cool and dry weather slow corn growth in Argentina
· USDA is forecasting Grain Consuming Animal Units for 2015/16 at 95.1 million—up 1.9 million or 2.0% from last year
· Ethanol grind: 975,000 barrels per day for week end Nov. 13—down 0.7% vs. last week but 0.5% higher vs. a year ago
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 26-40 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 150-300 K MT; and soyoil, 10-40 K MT
· ATI Research: From Oct. 13 to Nov. 18 this year, January 2016 soybean futures have declined $0.605 (-6.6%). One year ago, January 2015 soybean contract over the same time period (i.e. Oct. 13 to Nov. 18) increased $0.70 (+7.3%)
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 15/16 all wheat
· T-storm Weather: A weak cool front triggers a few thunderstorms in southern wheat areas of Argentina Sunday night & Monday, slightly slowing harvest. A few more thunderstorms likely affect central/southern Argentina Nov. 25-26
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ15, -$0.10, $40.65; EBF, +$0.31; EBF-CLF, $2.45, +$.26; RBZ, +$.0219; NGZ, -$.010; HOZ, +$.0076
· Additional declines in cash ethanol markets were seen on Wednesday: Chicago, New York and Gulf off 1 ½; Tampa eased 3 ½; Dallas slide 5 ¼; and LA was 3 ¾ lower at $1.54 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were firmer: 2014’s up ¼ to 44 -44 ½; 2015’s gained ¼ to 43 ½-44; & 2016’s climbed ¼ to 44-44 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse is trading at -$.16040 per gallon on Thursday morning (+.0335 vs. Tuesday)
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values fell $1.69, are down $8.1 vs. last week and at the lowest level since Oct. 12
· Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: Nov 1 on feed, 102.2%; Oct placements, 95.9%; Marketed in Oct, 96.2%
· On Wed., USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 6-cents, is down $2.66 vs. a week ago and lowest since April 29
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.45 lower at $56.04. December futures were up $0.20 but are still $1.665 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com
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