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MARKET TREND CORN CZ, Flat, SOYBEANS SX, Up 4, WHEAT

October 1, 2015 07:31 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCZ, Flat; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.0325; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0375; KWZ: Up $.0425 

·         China’s official mfg index for Sep edges higher to 49.8, beats expectations although a private index, the Caixin PMI eased lower to 47.2, a 6-year low.  Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed for national holidays.  The Nikkei closed up 1.9% and South Korea’s KOSPI gained .84%. Europe is trading mostly higher at mid-day:  CAC 40, +.75%; FTSE, +1.09% with the DAX off .03%.  U.S. pre-market indices point to a positive start for QIV:  DOW futures, +87; S&P, +10; NAS, +31.5. Externals:  the $ Index is slightly firmer, up .025 at 96.505; gold is $3.30 lower at $1,112.20 and November crude is $1.08 higher

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level energy in the Midwest potentially merges with rapidly-intensifying Hurricane Joaquin over the next few days.  The setup causes a long feed of northeast winds to keep much of the central U.S. cool and dry over the next week (aiding harvesting and planting), while heavy to potentially very heavy rain in excess of 3.00" affects a swath of the east coast, including around 20% of SRW wheat production.  Rain aids HRW wheat areas of the central and northern Plains Friday-Saturday, and a few more areas of rain are possible within the central U.S. next week

·         Dec Corn Falt at $3.8775; Mar Down $.0025 at $43.9850.  The funds finished the day even    

·         Nov SB Up $.0325 at $8.9550; Jan Up $.03 at $8.97.  Fund activity:  bought 4 K SB, 3 K SBM and sold 4 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0375 at $5.1650; Mar Up $.0375 at $5.2325.   The funds bought 6 K yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM                         &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;             

·  ​       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 28-35 mbu for 15/16 corn

·         T-storm Weather: Areas of high pressure suppress rainfall across much of the central U.S. over the next week, aiding corn harvesting.  Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with maximums in the 50s-60s & minimums in the 30s-40s

·         ATI Research: U.S. Gulf corn values are $11 to $16 per MT above its South American counterparts and some $6 per tonne more expensive than either Black Sea corn or feed wheat

·         Ethanol grind: 943,000 barrels per day for week end Sept. 25—up 0.4% vs. last week and 7.0% higher vs. a year ago

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 48-62 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; soymeal, 0-50 K MT old-crop, 100-225 K MT new-crop; soyoil, 0-40 K MT old-crop, 0-40 K MT new-crop

·         Crop consultant: Unbelievable weakening of Brazilian currency may encourage Brazilian farmers to plant as many soybeans as possible

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 15/16 all wheat

·         T-storm Weather: Significant rainfall of 0.50” to 1.00” is forecast in key HRW wheat of the U.S. central Plains Fri-Sat

ENERGY

·         Firmer:  CLX15, +$1.08, $46.17;  EBX,+$0.86; EBX-CLX, $3.07, -$.20; RBX, +$.0373; NGX, -$.003; HOX, +-$.0348

·         A mixed tone was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago up 1/8; New York gained 1 ½; Gulf down 1; Tampa eased ¼; Dallas off ½; and LA was steady at $1.68 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs lower: 2013’s down 3/8 to 34 ½-35 ½; 2014’s off ¾ to 35-36; & 2015’s declined 3/8 to 34 ½-35 ½

·         The Oct RBOB/Oct Ethanol inverse leased $.0132/gallon on Wednesday to settle at -$.1456

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;     

·&n​bsp;        On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values were down 69-cents, and at $208.62 are $9.27 lower a week ago

·         October live cattle futures closed at $124.675 Wed.—lowest settlement price for nearby contract since Aug. 30, 2013

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 84-cents, but at $83.84 is still up $2.03 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index $0.22 higher at $72.23.  October futures up $0.275 to $73.525 and $1.295 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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