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MARKET TREND CORN CZ, DOWN 3, SOYBEANS: SX,DOWN 4, WHEAT

November 6, 2015 08:30 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCZ, Up $.0025;  SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.0525  WHEAT: WZ, Down $.04; KWZ: Down $.0225

·         Asia was mostly higher while Europe is in the red ahead of today’s U.S. jobs report.  Economists look for unemployment to remain at 5.1% and expect the economy added 185 K jobs in October.  The latter along with wage growth will be key to the Fed boosting interest rates in December.  The Nikkei closed up .78%; Shanghai lost 1.9% while the Hang Seng slipped .80%.  Europe is showing losses ranging from .10% for the FTSE to -.83% for the CAC 40.  U.S. futures are mixed:  DOW, -15; NAS, +1/2; S&P, -1 ½. Outside markets:  the $ Index is up .135 @98.185; gold is $2.60 higher at $1,107.00 and Dec crude is up $.27 @ $45.47/bl

·         T-storm Weather: Waves of energy move across southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next 7 to 10 days, triggering thunderstorm clusters from time to time with near- to above-normal rainfall of 2.00" to 4.00" most likely.  Rainfall coverage and amounts diminish with northward extent into Bahia, leaving the key states of Goias and Mato Grosso between driest and wettest weather with increasing heat 

·         Dec Corn Up $.0025 at $3.75; Mar Up $.0025 at $3.83  Funds sold 8 K yesterday

·         Nov SB Up $.0525 at $8.73 Jan Up $.0375 at $8.6775.  Fund activity:  sold 10 K SB; 7 K SBM and 6 SBO.  Del’y: 51 SB

·         Dec Wheat Down $.04 at $5.2225; Mar Down $.04 at $5.23.  The funds were even inThursday’s trade

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for the week ending Oct. 29 were 21.9 mbu.  That’s down 22% from the previous week but is up 7% from the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales commitments are 32% below last year

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales for the week ending Oct. 29 were 6.0 mbu.  That’s up 6% vs. the previous week and more than four times the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 149 mbu vs. 123 last year (+21%)

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.74 ½ on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled at $3.71 ¼

·         U.S. exports of DDGs to China from January to September totaled 9.6 MMT, up 454 K from 2014

 

CORN/SORGHUM                            &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;          

·     ​    ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for the week ending Oct. 29 were 21.9 mbu.  That’s down 22% from the previous week but is up 7% from the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales commitments are 32% below last year

·         ATI Research: U.S. sorghum export sales for the week ending Oct. 29 were 6.0 mbu.  That’s up 6% vs. the previous week and more than four times the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 149 mbu vs. 123 last year (+21%)

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.74 ½ on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled at $3.71 ¼

·         U.S. exports of DDGs to China from January to September totaled 9.6 MMT, up 454 K from 2014

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for week ending Oct. 29 were a marketing year low of 24.1 mbu.  That’s down 69% from last year and 61% below the 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales commitments are 21% below last year

·         T-storm Weather: Despite a fairly dry and hot forecast for mid-November, overall concern remains low for soybeans in Goias and Mato Grosso in Brazil because the last two weeks were seasonable to wet

·         ATI Research: U.S. export sales of all wheat for the week ending Oct. 29 were only 3.1.  That’s down 85% vs. last week and 80% below the prior 4-week average.  Year-to-date sales are 472 mbu vs. 566 last year (-17%)

·         T-storm Weather: U.S. HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains remains mostly dry the next 7-10 days

ENERGY

·         Higher: CLZ15, +$0.27, $44.47; EBZ,+$0.39; EBZ-CLZ, $2.89, +$.11; RBZ, +$.0293; NGZ, -$.008; HOZ, +$.0227

·         Further erosion was seen in most cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago off 3/8; New York down 1 ¾; Gulf up ¾; Tampa eased 3; Dallas declined 2 ½; and LA was 2 ½ lower at $1.65 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were firmer: 2014’s up ½ to 41 ½ -42; 2015’s added 3/8 to 41-41 ¼; and 2016’s climbed ¼ to 41 ¼-41 ¾

·         The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse increased $.0089 to -$.1470 per gallon on Thursday   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            ​;                        ​       

&​middot;         Choice boxed beef values declined $1.28 on Thursday and $2.07 lower compared to a week ago

·         Dressed steer weight for week end Oct. 24: 927 lbs, down 3 pounds v. last week, 925.5 for 4-week avg. & 902 last year

·         On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $0.50 lower and has declined $3.69 (4.7%) the past 3 days

·         CME Lean Hog Index $1.24 lower at $66.42.  December futures down $1.975 at $55.40 & are $11.02 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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