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MARKET TREND CORN CZ, Down 2, SOYBEANS SX, Up 1, WHEAT

November 2, 2015 07:57 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCZ, Down $.0175; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.01; WHEAT: WZ, Down $.0350; KWZ: Down $.0250

·         China manufacturing index shows modest improvement but remains in a contraction mode.  Top  Chinese economic official says an annual growth rate of 6.5% expected throut 2020, versus 7%, more or less, this year.  Asia, lower:  Shanghai off 1.7%; Nikkei, down 2.1%; Hang Seng, -1.2%.  Europe is mostly higher:  FTSE, off .3%; CAC 40, +.4% and DAX, +.9%.  U.S. futures do point to a positive start:  DOW, +24; NAS, +7 and S&P, +2.  Externals:  energy is notably weaker; gold is $4 lower at $1,237.50 and the $ Index has edged .084 lower to 96.935

·         Weather: Additional rain is forecast for northern Brazil this week.  In areas where soybean planting had been delayed, this precipitation along with recent rain should boost soil moisture and subsequently result in increased planting progress.  Temperatures are projected to be near to above normal.  A similar rainfall pattern looks to be setting up for southern Brazil with precipitation across most major production areas this week.  Temperatures are projected to be variable 

·         Dec Corn Down $.0175at $3.8050 Mar Down $.02at $3.8950.  Funds bought 3 K on Friday

·         Nov SB Up $.01 at $8.8475; Jan Up $.0175 at $8.750  Fund activity:  bot 2 K SB, bot 3 K SBM and s 3 K SBO.  Del’y:  90 SB

·         Dec Wheat Down $.0350 at $5.1850; Mar Down $.0350 at $5.22.  The funds ended the week buying five K           

CORN/SORGHUM                     &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                  

<​p> ·         The final 2015 crop insurance harvest price for December 2015 corn futures is $3.8306

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 37.8 needed; 16.3 last week; Sorghum, 8.1 needed; 8.1 last week

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn harvest progress for the week ending Nov. 1 is projected at 80-82%.  That’s sharply above last year’s 62% and is also higher than the five-year average of approximately 79%

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. sorghum harvest progress for week end Nov. 1 est. at 81-83% v. 64% last year & 72% avg.

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         The final 2015 crop insurance harvest price for November 2015 soybean futures is $8.9109

·         ATI Research: There are indications the USDA’s latest soybean production forecast of 11.0 MMT for India is too high—perhaps by a large amount.  A reduction in India’s crop could lower their soymeal exports & boost soyoil imports

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. soybean harvest progress for week end Nov. 1 est. at 92-94% v. 81% last year & 88% avg.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 30.1 needed; 98.1 last week

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. winter wheat planting progress for week ending Nov. 1 is projected at 87-89% vs. 90% avg.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 16.9 needed; 11.7 last week

ENERGY

·         Lower: CLZ15, -$0.75, $45.84; EBZ,-$0.80; EBZ-CLZ, $2.95, -$.02; RBZ, -$.0274; NGZ, -$.078;HOZ, -$.0165

·         Slight gains were seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago firmed ¼; New York added 1; Gulf climbed ½; Dallas and Tampa up 1; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.76 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were lower: 2013’s down 3/8 to 39 ¼-40; 2014’s eased 3/8 to 39 ¾-40 ½; & 2015’s off 3/8 to 39 ¼-40

·         The Nov RBOB/Nov Ethanol inverse lost $.0080 on Friday to close at -$.2304/gallon   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    &nbs​p;                      

·       &nbs​p; Choice boxed beef values declined 89-cents on Friday but are $2.87 higher compared to a week ago

·         December live cattle futures closed at $141.725 on Friday, down $1.675 from the prior week

·         On Friday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout slid $2.82, is down $8.10 vs. a week ago & lowest since May 6

·         CME Lean Hog Index $0.95 lower at $71.18.  December futures off $0.675 at $59.20 & are $11.98 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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