MARKET TREND CORN CZ, Down 2, SOYBEANS SX, Unchanged

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Down $.0175;  SOYBEANS: SX, Unchanged; WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0175; KWZ: Up $.015

·         World stocks are generally mixed ahead of remarks later Thursday from top officials at the Fed.  Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at a conference on monetary policy implementation.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.4% overnight, the Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.5% but Japan’s Nikkei nudged up fractionally.  In Europe, the FTSE 100 is down 0.5% and the DAX is off 0.3%.  Pre-opening trends in the U.S. are mixed:  DOW, -8; NAS, +2; S&P, +`. Outside markets:  the $ Index is .092 higher @ 99.25; gold is $1.77 higher at $1,086.47; and Dec crude is down $.13 @ $42.80/bl

·         T-storm Weather: Dry and hot upper-level high pressure dominates Center-West Brazil and Bahia for at least the next five days, as exemplified Tuesday as 47% of Brazil soybean production reached at least 95F.  Changes begin Monday and continue as next week progresses when a cool front helps thunderstorms to initially focus on drought-stricken Bahia, then gradually expand westward with time as the front gradually dissipates

·         Dec Corn Up $.0175 at $3.605; Mar Up $.0175 at $3.6825.   Funds bought 2 K on Wednesday

·         Nov SB Unchanged at $8.685; Jan Down $.02 at $8.5875.  Fund activity:  bought 1 K SB; even SBM; and even SBO.  Del’y: Zero 

·         Dec Wheat Up $.0175 at $4.965; Mar Up $.01 at $4.985.  The funds were sold 8 K inMonday’s trade

CORN/SORGHUM                  <​wbr>                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                      

·         ATI Research: Important to note that projected 14/15 corn exports from Brazil—crop that was harvested last spring and will compete with U.S. origin into 2016—were raised 2.0 MMT in Tuesday’sUSDA WASDE to a record 31.0 MMT

·         December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.62 ¼ Wednesday; one year ago, December 2014 futures settled at $3.77 ¾

·         T-storm Weather: Over next 10 days, pockets of excessive rain & localized field flooding cannot be ruled out in/near Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (RGDS); rain may potentially exceed 5.00”.  Full-season corn planting is complete in RGDS

·         USDA WASDE shows large increase (+23%) in 15/16 carryin corn stocks in China due to downward revisions in feeding

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: Since 1992, there have been 6 years when U.S. national average soybean yield increased in September, October and November.  In 5 of those years, an increase was seen in January with the average just under 0.5 bpa    

·         T-storm Weather: As long as thunderstorms return next week to Brazilian soybean producing areas, the lack of rain short-term is unlikely to become a major issue since it was wet leading into the ongoing period of heat and dryness

·         USDA WASDE boosts 15/16 wheat exports from FSU-12 to record 45.5 MMT—up 13% vs. previous record set last year

·         T-storm Weather: Intense system Nov. 17-19 likely to result in heavy rain for U.S. SRW wheat in Corn Belt and Delta

ENERGY

·         Higher: CLZ15, -$0.13, $42.80; EBZ, -$0.05; EBZ-CLZ, $3.01, +$.13; RBZ, -$.0011; NGZ, +$.037; HOZ, +$.0043

·         EIA estimates: crude, +1.1 (API: +6.3); Gasoline, -0.6 (-3.2); Distillates, -1.1 (-0.5)

·         Cash ethanol markets were steady to slightly lower on Wednesday: Chicago, New York and Gulf were unchanged; Tampa and Dallas down ½; and LA was ½ lower at $1.61 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were mixed: 2014’s down 1/8 to 42 ¼ -42 ¾; 2015’s up 1/8 to 41 ¾-42; & 2016’s off ¼ at 42-42 ½

·         The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse is trading at -$.1626 per gallon on Thursday morning (-.002 vs. Wednesday)   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                       

·         On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values declined $1.76 and are $5.33 lower compared to last week

·         Choice boxed beef values have lost 2.4% over the past 5 trading days and are the lowest since Oct. 19

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 63-cents and is $1.19 lower vs. the prior week

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $1.34 at $59.83.  December futures $2.625 higher but are $3.655 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

 

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Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com

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