HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Down $.02 SOYBEANS: SF, Down $.0075; WHEAT: WZ, Down $.0350; KWZ: Down $.0250
· Turkey shoots down Soviet jet fighter along the Syrian border, raises fears of a confrontation. Asia closes mostly higher with the Nikkei up .23%; Shanghai gained .15% while the Hang Seng receeds .35%. Europe in negative territory early-on: CAC 40, down 1.45%; DAX, off .96%; FTSE, .85% lower. Airlines are especially weaker. Pre-markets point to a lower start on Wall Street: DOW futures, down 56; NAS, 18 ¾ weaker; S&P, off 7 ½. Jan crude is higher, up $.42/barrel as Mideast uneasiness increases ; the $ Index is a little weaker, off .18 at 99.675 and gold is $7.20 to the plus side in a safe-haven move, $1,074.
· T-storm Weather: Waves of energy trigger strong thunderstorms each day into the weekend within South Brazil and Paraguay, developing pockets of excessive wetness. Each wave sends cooler air to the north, helping to trigger seasonably-scattered thunderstorms across Southeast Brazil into next week. Center-West Brazil receives some thunderstorms through the period, but below-normal totals are probable in / adjacent Mato Grosso as upper-level high pressure limits organization through the period
· Dec Corn Down $.02 at $3.6525; Mar Down $.02 at $3.71. Fund buying to begin the week totaled 5 k
· Jan SB Down $.0075 at $8.6350; Mar Down $.0050 at $8.6575. The Funds bought 2 K SB, 3 K SBM and 1 K SBO yesterday
· Dec Wheat Down $.0350 at $4.9150; Mar Down $.0275 at $4.95. The funds also bought 5 K of wheat on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM        
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 1.808 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 52 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress—sorghum harvest at 94% vs. 87% last year and 93% for the 5-year average
· T-storm Weather: Around 1.00" to 2.00" of rain is most probable for most Argentina corn over the next week, increasing soil moisture and slowing planting at times (especially this weekend).
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. corn exports of 253 mbu are down 23% from last year’s 328 mbu total
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout is unchanged at 465 mbu
· USDA export inspections: Year-to-date U.S. soybean exports of 664 mbu are down 7% from last year’s 716 mbu total
· T-storm Weather: Below-normal rainfall is probable across soybean areas of Mato Grosso, Brazil through 7 to 10 days. More rain would likely be ideal for planting and growth given pockets of dryness in this area in recent weeks
· USDA Crop Progress, winter wheat emergence: 90% vs. 87% last week, 91% last year and the 5-year average of 90%
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout at 265 mbu vs. 212 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLF16, +$0.42, $42.17; EBF, +$0.55; EBF-CLF, $3.16, +$.08; RBF, +$.0202; NGF, -$.0613; HOF, +$.0073
· A mixed tone was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago up 1/8; New York down ½; Gulf firmed ½; Tampa was steady; Dallas climbed ½; and LA was steady at $1.60 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2014’s off ¼ at 43 ¾ -44; 2015’s down 1/8 at 43 ¼-43 ½; & 2016’s eased 1/8 to 43 ¾-44
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse gave up nearly 3 cents on Monday, settling at -$.1816/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef declined 35-cents on Monday and are $6.25 lower compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $2.21 last week to $124.83/cwt and is $46.32 lower vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 40-cents lower and is down $2.23 vs. the previous week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.15 at $55.37. December futures unchanged and are now $2.08 above the index
· USDA Cold Storage report showed largest decline in total pork stocks during October on records back to 1970
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather