HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CU, Up $.0250; SOYBEANS: SU, Down $.05; WHEAT: WU, Up $.0350; KWU: Up $.0425
· Despite a Chinese rate cut, Asian stocks meandered overnight: Shanghai closed 1.30% lower; the Hang Seng lost 1.52% but the Nikkei bounced back with a 3.2% gain. Europe is weaker: DAX, -.95%; FTSE, -1.17% and the CAC 40, off 1.19% as global economic jitters linger. Former Treasury Secretary Summers writes a Fed rate hike in the near future would be a “serious error”. U.S. pre-markets look “robust: DOW futures, +249; S&P500, +32¼; NAS, +61½. Externals: $ Index, -.019; Oct WTI, up 4 cents; gold, -$7.20
· T-storm Weather: Cool to unseasonably-cool weather continues into Saturday. A warmer pattern begins Sunday-Monday and likely continues for at least one week as upper-level high pressure establishes, sending maximums into the 80s-90s over Aug. 30–Sep. 5. Most areas receive minimal rainfall over the next 10 days as areas of high pressure suppress rainfall, with one important caveat. The caveat occurs Thursday-Friday when a system moves from the central Plains through the Corn Belt, producing a swath of heavy rain within the northwest third of corn and soybeans – most likely from eastern Nebraska through western Iowa
· Sep Corn Up $.0250 at $3.68 Dec Up $.0225 at $3.7925. The funds sold 6 K on Tuesday
· Sep SB Down $.05 at $8.8925; Nov Down $.0425 at $8.7350. The funds sold 2 K SB and bought 1 K each of SBM and SBO
· Sep Wheat Up $.0350 at $4.9850; Dec Up $.0350 at $5.03. The funds sold an estimated 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· ATI Research: We expect September-November U.S. corn exports to total 365 mbu, 36 million fewer than in 2014
· T-storm Weather: 92% of U.S. corn production received at least 2.00” of rain over the last 30 days
· Crop consultant: A lot of the corn in Ohio, Indiana and Illinois is maturing prematurely due to dry conditions, a lack of nitrogen and disease pressures
· U.S. corn dent for the week ending Aug. 30 was approx. 50% last year and the five-year average is approx. 60%
· Ethanol margins: $0.17 per gallon--down vs. $0.21 last week and below $1.01 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: We expect September-November U.S. soybean exports to run 150 to 175 mbu below last fall’s pace
· T-storm Weather: Best rain chances from Aug. 30-Sept. 5 are in far northern U.S. soybean areas
· Crop consultant: Rains that fell last week across U.S. western Corn Belt were very beneficial for soybeans in pod fill
· ATI Research: HRW exports likely to remain weak into September with outstanding sales at a 9-year low
· Minneapolis September wheat futures closed at $4.96 ¾ on Tuesday—a new low settlement price for the contract
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLV15, +0.04, $39.35; EBV,+$0.19; EBV-CLV, $4.06, +$.16, RBV, -$.0296; NGV, +$.013; HOV, -$.0025
· EIA estimates: crude, +0.3 (API: -7.3); Gasoline, -1.1 (+0.07); Distillates, +1.1 (+1.5)
· A steady to slightly higher trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago up 5/8; New York steady; Gulf added ¼; Tampa climbed 1; Dallas gained 1 ½; and LA was 2 ¼ firmer at $1.63 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs down slightly: 2013’s eased 1/8 to 37 ¼-37 ½; 2014’s down ¼ to 38 ¼-39 ¼; & 2015’s off 1/8 to 37 ¼-37 ½
· The Sep RBOB/Sep Ethanol spread went to an inverse with ETOH at a $.0014/gallon premium
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·  Choice boxed beef values declined 45-cents on Tuesday, and at $243.86 are down $1.22 vs. last week
· U.S. daily cattle slaughter for Tuesday was estimated at 109,000 head vs. 110,000 last week & 117,000 a year ago
· On Tuesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 59-cents, but at $87.81 is $1.30 lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.10 lower at $78.79. October futures $1.675 higher at $67.50 but are $11.29 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather