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Market Trend Corn, CU up 3, Soybeans, SQ up 9, WU, up 3, KWU, up

July 30, 2015 07:02 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CU up 3;  Soybeans, SQ up 9; WU, up 3; KWU, up 2                   

·         Shanghai trader lower overnight, losing 2.2%; the Hang Seng fell ½% while the Nikkie achieved a 1.1% gain. Recent volatility according to some is an indication economic fundamentals cannot support current equity prices.  U.S. Fed leaves interest rates steady but wants further evidence U.S. economy is definitely improving and inflation is imminent before raising rates.  Greenspan derides entitlement spending.   Europe works higher again today:  DAX, FTSE and CAC 40 are all .70-.79% to the plus side at mid-day.  U.S futures slightly higher:  DOW, +8; S&P, +3/4; NAS, +9.  Oil’s up; so is the $ Index (+.293); gold, down $6.20

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures fluctuate within a seasonable range in most corn and soybean areas through Monday.  A cooler pattern follows as a large upper-level system assembles in southeast Canada.  The exact location of the system in Canada is key to rainfall coverage and amounts from Saturday forward.  Regardless, a cool-wet or hot-dry scenario is unlikely.  At this time, near-normal rainfall of 0.50" to 1.50" is most probable to accompany coolness based on the alignment of the storm track and that some humidity will be available from time to time over August 1-10

·         Sep Corn Up $.0275 at $3.7050;  Dec Up $.0250 at $3.8075.  The funds sold 10 K at mid-week

·         Aug SB Up $.09 at $9.92; Nov Up $.0625 at $9.6325.  Funds: bought 2 K SB; bought 3 K SBM and sold 4 K SBO

·         Sep Wheat Up $.03 at $4.9925; Dec Up $.0275 at $5.08.    The funds sold an estimated 6 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM                                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 8 to 16 mbu old-crop corn, 6-16 new-crop

·         T-storm Weather: Topsoil dryness is increasing in the eastern Corn Belt, but the coverage of topsoil (and subsoil) dryness for U.S. corn remains sharply lower than late-July in each of the last four years

·         ATI Research: Accumulated rainfall from May 1-July 28 in Bloomington, Illinois was approximately 22.69”, which is 48% above the 2014 total of 15.32” and 84% above the average for the period of 12.33” 

·         Ethanol grind: 965,000 barrels per day for week end July 24--down 8 thou v. last week but up 1.1% vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 4 to 7 mbu old-crop, 26-33 new-crop; soymeal, 50-125 old-crop, 0-75 new-crop; soyoil, 10-50 old-crop, 0-5 new-crop

·         T-storm Weather: 62% of U.S. soybeans rated “Good” and “Excellent” as of Sunday, 0 points from the 30-year median

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 15 to 22 mbu for 15/16 all wheat

·         Kansas City September wheat futures posted a new contract low of $4.92 ½ on Wednesday and settled at $4.95 ¼. This is the lowest settlement price for a spot Kansas City wheat contract sinceMay 5

ENERGY

·         Firmer:  CLU15, +0.47, $49.26; EBU, +$.79; EBU-CLU, +2.85, -$.012, RBU, +$.0366; NGU, -$.012; HOU, +$.0231

·         A slightly firmer tone was evident in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago added 2 1/8; New York up ¾; Gulf and Dallas were both a penny firmer; Tampa climbed ½; and LA was 1 5/8 higher at $1.64 5/8 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs for 2013, 2014 and 2015 all gained ¾ to 40 ranging from 39 ½-40 ½

·         The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread gained $.0142 to $.3404 per gallon on Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      ​                        &​nbsp;            <​/wbr>

·         On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values increased 47-cents to $232.62, but are still down 30-ents vs. a week ago

·         Despite Wednesday’s gains, daily choice boxed beef values have been lower than prior week for 21 consecutive days

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 63-cents to $85.26, but is still $1.95 higher v. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $0.03 to $78.33.  August futures up $0.375 to $79.85 and are $1.52 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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