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MARKET TREND CORN CU, Up 2, SOYBEANS SU, Down $.04, WHEAT

August 20, 2015 07:01 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCU, Up 1 ¾; SOYBEANS: SU, Down $.0425; WHEAT: WU, Up 1 1/2; KWU: Down ¼     

·         Further weakness in crude and what appears to be the Fed’s undeterred move towards higher interest rates despite global economic concerns, namely China, has markets lower. Shanghai lost 3.4% overnight; the Nikkei fell .94% and the Hang Seng was off 1.8%.  Europe is trading in a similar manner:  the FTSE is .4% lower; DAX, down .88% and the CAC 40, off .90%.  Pre-markets have DOW futures 131 lower; the NAS, down 33.3 and the S&P 500, off 15.  Sep crude is 63 cents lower and seems headed for $40;  gold is in demand, up $11.10 and the $ Index is slightly lower at 96.27, down .098

·         T-storm Weather: A few thunderstorms return to the western half of the Corn Belt when a cool front passes this weekend.   Temperatures remain cool to unseasonably cool through Tuesday (Aug. 25), allowing corn and soybeans to fill free of heat stress.  A warmer pattern follows from around Wednesday-Thursday (Aug. 26-27) forward, but sustained heat is not foreseen given the close proximity of the storm track (jet stream).  Thunderstorms occasionally form along the northern edge of warmth, primarily across the northwest half of corn and soybeans

·         Sep Corn Up $.0175 at $3.69; Dec Up $.0175 at $3.8025.   The funds bought 2 K on Wednesday

·         Sep SB Down $.0425 at $8.9925; Nov Down $.0450 at $8.89.   The fund said to have sold 5 K SB, 1 K SBM and 2 K SBO

·         Sep Wheat Up $.0150 at $4.9775; Dec Up $.0150 at $5.0150.   The funds were buyers of a single contract yesterday 

CORN/SORGHUM                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                      

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 0 to 8 mbu old-crop corn, 14-24 new-crop

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures in recent days, weeks, and months were near-normal and not stressfully hot for U.S. corn, and the proportion of the crop rated “good and excellent” is +7 points from the 30-year median

·         ATI Research: Accumulated rainfall from May 1-Aug. 18 in Bloomington, Illinois was approximately 25.87”, which is 53% above the 2014 total of 16.88” and 73% above the average for the period of 14.97” 

·         Ethanol grind: 965,000 barrels per day for week end Aug. 14--unchanged v. last week but 3.0% higher vs. a year ago

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, 0 to 9 mbu old-crop, 18-29 new-crop; soymeal, 0-75 old-crop, 25-150 new-crop; soyoil, 0-10 old-crop, 0-5 new-crop

·         T-storm Weather: Best rain chances over Aug. 26-31 are across the northwest half of U.S. soybeans where seasonably-heavy totals of 0.50” to 1.00” are most probable.  Less rainfall occurs with southward extent

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 11 to 18 mbu for 15/16 all wheat

·         T-storm Weather: Winter wheat areas of Argentina are very wet due to extreme rainfall earlier this month

ENERGY

·         Lower: CLV15, -0.63, $40.64;  EBV,-$0.75; EBV-CLV, $5.79, -$.11, RBV, -$.0363; NGV, -$.009; HOV, -$.0207

·         A mixed trend persisted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago off 1 1/6; New York down ¾; Gulf eased 2 ¼; Tampa steady; Dallas declined 1 ½; but LA was ½ higher at $1.65 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs steady to lower: 2013’s down 1/8 at 39-39 ½; 2014’s unch at 40-40 ¾; & 2015’s off 1/8 to 39-39 ½

·         The Sep RBOB/Sep Ethanol spread narrowed $.0586 to $.09232 per gallon on Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                  

·    &nbs​p;    On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values increased $1.70, and at $246.78 are up $2.76 vs. last week 

·         Estimates for Friday’s Cattle On Feed report: On feed Aug. 1, 102.6% of ‘14; Placed in Jul, 100.9%; Market in Jul, 97.0%

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout fell $1.45, and at $87.66 is $2.10 lower vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index up $0.13 at $78.93.  October futures down $0.125 at $66.00 and are $12.93 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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