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Market Trend Corn, CU up 2, Soybeans, SQ up 4, WU, down 1,KWU, down

July 16, 2015 07:15 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CU up 2; Soybeans, SQ up 4; WU, down 1 ½; KWU, down 2 ¼            

·         The Greek parliament voted in favor of a new bailout plan and most world markets responded accordingly.  Greece has a payment due Monday to the ECB.  Chinese volatility continues:  Shanghai closed up .49%; the Nikkei rose .67% & the Hang Seng was .43% higher.  Europe breathed a sigh of relief:  DAX, +1.50%; CAC 40, +1.47% and the FTSE, +.47%.  Yellen continues speaking to Congress today—rate hike likely but values will likely remain low for some time; earnings reports have been favorable and with the Greek vote in, U.S. premarkets are positive—DOW futures, up 56; NAS, +19 and S&P, +6 ½. Energy futures are higher; gold is $3.90 cheaper at $1,143.50 & the $ Index is up .396 to 97.675

·         T-storm Weather: Temperatures average warmer than normal through Sunday-Monday, especially due to very warm to hot weather within Friday-Sunday as maximums reach the 90s and minimums stay in the 70s across a large area.  Thunderstorm clusters form along the periphery of heat as the "ring of fire" pattern continues.  Widespread rain initially aids some of the drier areas of the northwest Corn Belt today, then in in varying areas at varying times from this weekend forward

·         Sep Corn Up $.0225 at $4.3175; Dec Up $.02 at $4.4225    Fund buying totaled 2 K at mid-week

·         Aug SB Up $.04 at $10.29; Nov Up $.05 at $10.21  Funds: Sold 4 K SB, 2 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO

·         Sep Wheat Down $.0150 at $5.6525;  Dec Down $.0150 at $5.73   The funds sold 1 K yesterday.  

CORN/SORGHUM                    &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                   <​/p>

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 13 to 21 mbu old-crop corn, 6-12 new-crop

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread coverage of at least near-normal rain occurs through two weeks, except south where it will be suppressed by upper-level high.  The hottest weather thus far in the growing season plausible to begin July 24

·         ATI Research: Accumulated rainfall from May 1-July 14 in Bloomington, Illinois was approximately 21.39”, which is 41% above the 2014 total of 15.19” and 104% above the average for the period of 10.46” 

·         Ethanol grind: 984,000 barrels per day for week end July 10--down 3 thou v. last week but 4.3%  higher vs. last year

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects soybeans, -2 to +6 mbu old-crop, 7-15 new-crop; soymeal, 50-150 old-crop, 75-150 new-crop; soyoil, 0-10 old-crop, 0-5 new-crop

·         ATI Research: NOPA June crush at 142.5 mbu looks neutral v. avg. guess of 142.2; implied domestic soybean meal use appears to be up 14% v. last year.  The year-to-date total is up 7%, which is ahead of the USDA estimate

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 11 to 18 mbu for 15/16 all wheat

·         Reports regarding the generally poor quality of the U.S. Midwest soft red winter wheat crop continue to be noted

ENERGY

·         Firmer:  CLQ15, +$0.38, $51.79; EBQ, +0.59; EBQ-CLQ, +5.85, +$.21, RBQ, +$.0295; NGQ, -$.002; HOQ, +$.0051

·         Weakness in cash ethanol markets continued on Wednesday: Chicago off 3 5/8; New York down 3 7/8; Gulf eased 3 ½; Tampa slid 6 ½; Dallas declined 5 ½; and LA was 7 lower at $1.73 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs for 2013 and 2015 eased ¼ to 45 ¾, while 2014’s were ¾ lower at 45 ¾

·         The Aug RBOB/Aug Ethanol spread remains volatile, snapping back $.0468/gallon to $.2789 on Wednesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;

·     &n​bsp;   On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values declined $1.10 to $234.94—another new low for calendar year 2015

·         Since June 24, choice boxed beef values have plummeted $21.18 (8.3%)

·         On Wednesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 76-cents to $81.85--the highest level since June 25

·         CME Lean Hog Index up $0.33 to $80.59.  August futures $0.625 lower at $75.30, and are $5.29 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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