HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CU, Up ¼; SOYBEANS: SQ, Up 3; WHEAT: WU, Up 2 ½; KWU, Up ¼
· Overseas markets are mixed ahead of today’s jobs report. Volatitity remains the norm in China where Shanghai rebounded 2.26%; both the Hang Seng (+.73%) and the Nikeei (+.29%) closed higher. Europe is lower at mid-day: FTSE, -.08%; CAC 40, -.28% and the DAX, -.41%. U.S. futures are sympathetic—DOW futures are 19 lower; the NAS is down 5 and the S&P500, 2 ¼ lower. Consensus is for 223 K jobs in July but whether this will lead to a September interest rate hike is being debated. Externals: Sep gold is little changed at $1,089.70; Sep WTI is up $.08 at $44.74/bl and the $Index is .016 weaker at 97.89
· T-storm Weather: Temperatures warm over the next few days, but ultimately average cooler than normal over the next week due to a strong cool front that passes Sunday-Monday. Scattered thunderstorms affect varying areas until the cool front passes, but best chances are generally across the northern or northwestern third of corn and soybeans. A notably drier pattern likely follows for at least one week. A warmer pattern begins next Thursday-Friday, but it will take more time to determine the coverage, intensity, and longevity
· Sep Corn Up $.0025 at $3.70; Dec Up $.0025 at $3.8075. The funds sold 4 K on Thursday
· Aug SB Up $.03 at $9.8850; Nov Up $.04 at $9.60. Funds: sold 6 K SB; 5 K SBM; bought 1 K SBO. Dely: SBO, 177
· Sep Wheat Up $.0250 at $5.0950; Dec Up $.0275 at $5.14. The funds again bought 3 K
CORN/SORGHUM       ;  
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2015 U.S. corn crop: 13.332 bbu (range 13.098-13.660) and 13.530 in July
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn carryout--14/15, 1.783 bbu (1.779 in July); 15/16, 1.449 (1.599)
· December 2015 corn futures closed at $3.80 ½ on Thursday—one year ago, December 2014 corn settled at $3.71 ¼
· ATI Research: U.S. export sales of new-crop corn have averaged 13.4 mbu/week the past 4 weeks, which compares to a hefty 34.4 million last year and is some 10 million below the 5-year average
· Year-to-date 14/15 U.S. sorghum export sales: 337.4 mbu (96.4% of USDA est). Outstanding sales: 41 mbu v. 42 in ‘14
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2015 U.S. soybean crop: 3.742 bbu (range 3.570-3.885) & 3.885 in July
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean carryout--14/15, 247 mbu (255 in July); 15/16, 322 (425)
· ATI Research: U.S. export sales of new-crop soybeans have averaged 24.5 mbu/week the past 4 weeks vs. 29.6 for the 5-year average and well down from last year’s 48.6 mbu figure
· Aug. 12 USDA WASDE: Avg. trade guess for 2015 U.S. all wheat crop: 2.159 bbu (range 2.075-2.210) & 2.148 in July
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW year-to-date export sales of 60 mbu are down 15% vs. last year & 27% below the 5-year avg.
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLU15, +0.08, $44.74; EBU, -$0.10; EBU-CLU, +4.67, -$.19, RBU, -$.0070; NGU, -$.006; HOU, +$.0019
· A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago and Gulf eased 2 ¼; New York down 2 ½; Dallas and Tampa slid 2 ¾; and LA was 3 lower at $1.63 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were lower: 2013’s down 1 ½ at 39-40; 2014’s off ½ to 40-43; and 2015’s slipped 7/8 to 39-42
· The Sep RBOB/Sep Ethanol spread gained a penny, settling at $.1908/gallon on Thursday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY      
· Choice boxed beef values declined 2-cents on Thursday, but at $235.19 are still up $1.85 compared to the prior week
· Dressed steer weight for week end July 25: 884 lbs, unchanged vs. last week, 879 for 4-week avg. & 870 last year
· On Thursday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 12-cents lower at $88.47—still $2.45 higher vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.12 to $79.08. August futures $2.15 lower at $78.075 & are $1.005 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather