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MARKET TREND CORN CU, Steady SOYBEANS SU, Down 4, WHEAT

August 31, 2015 07:05 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND: CORNCU, Steady; SOYBEANS: SU, Down $.04;  WHEAT: WU, Down $.0275; KWU: Up $.0025     

·         Comments from Fed Vice Chair Fisher at the Jackson Hole meeting suggest the U.S. economy is nearing the point where a rate hike is likely.  Many had thought China’s slowing economy and global market volatility would make a boost less probable.  Asia started the week off with Shanghai down .78% and the Nikkei, 1.3% lower; the Hang Seng gained .27%.  Europe is mostly lower:  the DAX is off .54%; the CAC 40 is .65 lower with the FTSE up .90%.  Pre-market indicators find DOW futures 124 lower; the S&P is off 15 and the NAS, 27 ½ weaker. Outside markets:  gold is down $2.10 at $1,131; the $ Index is slightly weaker, -.105 @ 96.03 and the energies are lower with October crude down 87 cents at $44.37/bl

·         T-storm Weather: 1.00” to 3.00” of rain affected eastern Nebraska through much of Iowa, Wisconsin and adjacent areas of Illinois and Minnesota over the last three days (including over 6.00” in a small part of Iowa), which was near expectations of last week’s reports; coverage and amounts were much lower elsewhere.  A large area of upper-level high pressure produces above-normal warmth across the central U.S. over the next week; maximums reach the 80s-90s most days with minimums in the 60s.  A few showers dot the southeast half of the Corn Belt into midweek, but most of the central U.S. stays dry through at least Friday

·         Sep Corn Steady at $3.6325;  Dec Down $.0075 at $3.7425.  The funds bought an estimated 2 K on Friday.  Dely: 90

·         Sep SB Down $.04 at $8.8925; Nov Down $.08 at $8.7750.   Funds: bought 5 K SB, 4 K SBO; sold 3 K SBM.   Dely: SBO, 545

·         Sep Wheat Down $.0275 at $4.7425; Dec Down $.0325 at $4.8050.   The funds sold 4 KFriday.  Dely:  6 HRW; 310 SRW

CORN/SORGHUM                         &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;              

· &nb​sp;       USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. corn could be steady to one point lower vs. last week’s 69%.  Ratings for the same week last year were 74%.  The 5-year average for corn dent is approximately 60% 

·         ATI Research: If China’s imports of U.S. milo this fall fail to live up to expectations, the spread between corn and milo may widen significantly, allowing more of the latter to work into the domestic market in place of corn

·         T-storm Weather—A cool front passes Sep. 6-7, returning U.S. Midwest temps to near-normal levels for next week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 36,296 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent crop condition ratings for U.S. soybeans could be steady to one point lower vs. last week’s 63%.  Ratings for same week last year were 72%.  5-year avg. for soybeans dropping leaves is approx. 7%

·         T-storm Weather: Rain returns for U.S. Corn Belt Sep. 5-7; 0.75”-1.50”most likely across northwest half of soybeans

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. spring wheat harvest est. at 85-90% vs. approx. 36% last year & approx. 64% for 5-year avg.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 19.1 needed; 10.2 last week 

ENERGY

·         Weaker: CLV15, -0.87, $44.33;  EBV,-$1.26; EBV-CLV, $4.32, -$.51, RBV, -$.0291; NGV, -$.059; HOV, -$.0341

·         Cash ethanol markets showed a firmer tone on Friday: Chicago gained 7/8; New York up 2 ¾; Gulf climbed ½; Dallas and Tampa added 1; and LA was a penny higher at $1.64 per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs were higher: 2013’s added 1 to 37 ½-38 ½; 2014’s up 1 ½ to 39-40; & 2015’s gained 1 to 37 ½-38 ½

·         The Sep RBOB/Sep Ethanol spread gained nearly 5 cents on Friday and settled at +$.0788, premium RBOB

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·         Choice boxed beef values declined 99-cents on Friday, and at $243.22 are $1.68 lower compared to a week ago 

·         U.S. cattle slaughter for the week ending Aug. 29 was up 0.9% vs. the previous week but down 7.3% vs. a year ago

·         On Friday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 27-cents weaker, and at $84.00 is down $3.28 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index $0.40 lower at $78.28.  October futures down $0.625 at $66.425 & are $11.855 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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